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Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
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Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Armenian National Congress win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $25.1K in 24h volume, and $25.4K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$25.1K
Liquidity
$25.4K
This market asks whether the Armenian National Congress will win the largest number of seats in Armenia’s 2026 National Assembly election. It is centered on the June 7, 2026 parliamentary vote, because the seat leader in that contest will determine the winning side for this market.
The question is not whether the Armenian National Congress will enter parliament, but whether it will finish first in seat count among all parties or coalitions contesting the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election. Armenia’s National Assembly is the country’s legislature, so the result depends on the official parliamentary seat totals from the election scheduled for June 7, 2026. If the election is not held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to Other, and if there is a tie on seats, the rules break it first by valid votes and then alphabetically by listed abbreviation.
This market reflects uncertainty about Armenia’s parliamentary outcome and whether a specific opposition-aligned party, the Armenian National Congress, can outperform the other lists in a national legislative race. In proportional parliamentary systems, winning the most seats is a different and narrower question than simply winning representation, coalition leverage, or vote share, so the market is pricing that exact distinction. The result matters because seat totals determine which party can claim the strongest mandate in the assembly, even if coalition politics still shape government formation afterward.
The price will move most on official campaign developments that affect whether the Armenian National Congress looks capable of leading the field in seat totals: candidate registration, alliance deals, leadership changes, and major shifts in party messaging. Polling, if and when it becomes available, can matter if it consistently shows the party gaining or falling behind other major lists, but the market ultimately cares about who wins the most seats, not who polls best in isolation. After voting, credible reporting and especially the Armenian Central Election Commission’s official seat count will be the decisive driver, since the market resolves from official results if there is any ambiguity.
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-0.1%
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should watch the election date itself, because the market has a hard fallback to Other if the parliamentary election does not happen by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The key source of truth is the Armenian Central Election Commission at elections.am, and the resolution rule says the final answer is based on the party or coalition with the greatest number of seats, not just the vote leader. It is also worth checking the tie-break rules in advance, since equal seat totals are settled first by valid votes and then alphabetically by abbreviation if needed.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Armenian National Congress win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $25.1K in 24h volume, and $25.4K in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
0.1%
No
100%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 7, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Armenia on June 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election. If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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