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😬 Cooling⚡ Tight
11%
-48.5%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?
24h Vol
$276.2K
Liquidity
$8.5K
Spread
1%
6/6/2026
View marketCulture
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 73%, $188.9 in 24h volume, and $12.6K in liquidity.
Probability
73%
24h Volume
$188.9
Liquidity
$12.6K
This market asks whether Marvel’s "Avengers: Doomsday" will post the biggest domestic 3-day opening weekend of any movie released in 2026. It is an especially watchable box-office question because an Avengers title is the kind of event release that can set the pace for the whole year, but it still has to beat every other 2026 opener on the specific measure used here.
The market is about one movie: "Avengers: Doomsday." It resolves by comparing that film’s final 3-day domestic opening weekend gross, as shown in the Weekend Box Office Performance table on The Numbers, against every other movie released in 2026. The key detail is that the market uses the finalized Friday-Saturday-Sunday figure only, even if the film opens over four or five days, and ties go to the title that comes first alphabetically.
There is real uncertainty because a year’s top opening weekend can be won by a franchise tentpole, but only if audience demand, release timing, and competition line up. "Avengers" carries strong built-in recognition, yet the market is really asking whether this specific installment will outperform every other 2026 release on opening weekend, not whether it will be a hit in general. That distinction matters because another major event movie could still take the top spot even if "Avengers: Doomsday" performs very well.
Price can move when the film’s release plan becomes clearer, especially the exact opening date and whether it keeps a premium launch window without major same-week competition. It can also move if other 2026 films are announced or positioned as likely box-office rivals, since the market is relative: the question is not just how big "Avengers: Doomsday" opens, but whether anything else can exceed it. Any change in how distributors frame the film’s scale, rollout, or audience target can shift expectations about whether it can lead the year’s opening-weekend race.
Related markets
-48.5%
24h Vol
$276.2K
Liquidity
$8.5K
Spread
1%
6/6/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 73% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should watch for the finalized weekend box-office figure on The Numbers, because that is the source of truth for this market. The main things to verify are the movie’s exact 3-day domestic opening weekend total, whether the figures have moved from studio estimates to final numbers, and whether any other 2026 release has already posted a higher finalized opening weekend. The market runs through December 31, 2026, but if final data are not available by January 31, 2027, the rules say a backup resolution path applies, so the final outcome may depend on how complete the box-office record is at that point.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 73%, $188.9 in 24h volume, and $12.6K in liquidity.
Track live culture prediction markets focused on entertainment, celebrity events, streaming trends, viral topics, movies, music, and global pop culture developments.
Yes
72.5%
No
27.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Dec 31, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Probability signal
The current price implies a strong favorite, so new information would need to be meaningful to move the market sharply.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 73%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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