
-0.1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.3M
Liquidity
$1.1M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $25.1K in 24h volume, and $145.9K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$25.1K
Liquidity
$145.9K
This market asks whether Ayelet Shaked will become the next person officially sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 parliamentary election. Shaked is a well-known Israeli politician, which makes the question notable because it is not just about election results, but about who ultimately gets the mandate and forms a government. The market stays open until the end of 2027 unless an earlier election changes the timeline.
The event is tied to Israel’s next legislative election, currently scheduled for October 27, 2026, unless an early election is called. For this market to resolve “Yes,” Ayelet Shaked would need to be the individual who is formally appointed and sworn in as prime minister after that election or after any earlier election. A caretaker or interim prime minister does not count, and if no such sworn-in prime minister exists by December 31, 2027, the market resolves to “Other.”
Israeli politics often turns on coalition bargaining rather than a single direct winner, so the identity of the next prime minister can remain uncertain even when an election date is known. Shaked is a recognizable political figure, but becoming prime minister requires not just visibility or party influence, but enough parliamentary support to be formally appointed and sworn in. The market is pricing the chance that she either leads a coalition or otherwise emerges from the post-election process as the official head of government.
Price can move if Israel’s election timetable changes, especially if an early election is called before October 2026. It can also move with official statements about party lists, coalition talks, alliances, resignations, leadership contests, or any report that Shaked is positioned to receive the mandate. Because the resolution depends on who is actually sworn in, developments about who can command a governing majority matter more than campaign rhetoric alone.
Related markets

-0.1%
24h Vol
$1.3M
Liquidity
$1.1M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should watch the official Government of Israel announcements around election timing, coalition formation, presidential consultations, and the swearing-in of any new cabinet. The key resolution point is not who is projected to lead or who wins the most seats, but who is formally appointed and sworn in as prime minister. If no one reaches that stage by the deadline, the market resolves to “Other,” so prolonged deadlock is also relevant.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $25.1K in 24h volume, and $145.9K in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
0.4%
No
99.7%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Dec 31, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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