finance
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
6%
-4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?
24h Vol
$185.3K
Liquidity
$146.7K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketTechnology
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Baidu have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $455.3 in 24h volume, and $3.7K in liquidity.
Probability
1%
24h Volume
$455.3
Liquidity
$3.7K
This market asks whether Baidu will be the company behind the model ranked third on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at the end of June 2026, using the “Style Control On” view. It is worth watching because the answer depends not just on Baidu’s own model quality, but on where it sits relative to other frontier AI labs on a specific public leaderboard at a fixed check time.
The key question is which company owns the model in third place on the Chatbot Arena “Text Arena | Overall” leaderboard when it is checked on June 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. The market is not asking whether Baidu has a strong AI model in a broad sense; it is asking whether Baidu’s model is the one shown in the #3 position under the leaderboard’s ranking rules, with style control turned on. If the leaderboard is tied on rank, the market uses Arena score, including unrounded underlying values, and then company name order as a final tiebreaker.
Baidu is one of the major Chinese AI companies, but the third spot on a public benchmark-style leaderboard can move as new models are added, updated, or re-scored. That creates uncertainty about whether Baidu will hold, lose, or miss that exact position by the June 2026 cutoff. Traders are effectively pricing the chance that Baidu’s model remains near the top tier but finishes specifically in third place under the market’s defined ranking rules.
Price can move when Chatbot Arena updates the leaderboard, when Baidu releases a new model, or when competing companies such as other major AI labs launch models that score higher. Changes in the “Text Arena | Overall” ranking, especially if Baidu moves into or out of third place, are directly relevant because the market resolves off that table rather than on general reputation or product announcements. Any leaderboard tie or close score around the cutoff matters as well, since the rules rely on fine-grained Arena score and then company-name tiebreaks.
Related markets
-4%
24h Vol
$185.3K
Liquidity
$146.7K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 1% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The most important thing to check is the exact leaderboard state at the resolution time: the “Rank” column on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard, with style control on, under the “Text Arena | Overall” tab. Readers should verify which company owns the model in third place, and whether any tie is being broken by Arena score or by the market’s company-name rule. The market notes that if the source is temporarily unavailable at check time, it stays open until the leaderboard returns, so the official source of truth is the leaderboard itself rather than outside commentary or summaries.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Baidu have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $455.3 in 24h volume, and $3.7K in liquidity.
Track live technology prediction markets focused on AI, major tech events, product launches, innovation forecasts, and emerging industry trends.
Yes
0.5%
No
99.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 1%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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