
-3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?
24h Vol
$186.4K
Liquidity
$150.5K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketTechnology
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Baidu have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $791 in 24h volume, and $5K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$791
Liquidity
$5K
This market asks whether Baidu will be the company behind the model ranked third on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at the end of June 2026. It is worth watching because the ranking depends on a public benchmark that can change as companies release new models, update existing ones, or improve performance over time.
The question is not whether Baidu has a strong AI model in a broad sense, but whether Baidu will own the model sitting in third place on the Chatbot Arena "Text Arena | Overall" leaderboard when it is checked on June 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. The market uses the leaderboard’s Rank column with style control off, and if ranks are tied it falls back to Arena score, then to the company-name tiebreaker described in the rules. In practice, the outcome depends on which company is credited with the model in third place at that exact check time.
Baidu is a major Chinese internet and AI company, so its standing on a widely watched model leaderboard is a concrete way to judge how competitive its systems are against other large labs. The uncertainty comes from the fact that leaderboard positions can move as models are added, retrained, or re-evaluated, and several companies may be close together near the top. Readers following this market are essentially watching whether Baidu can remain, reach, or lose a top-three spot by the deadline.
The main price drivers are new model releases from Baidu or its rivals, updates to existing models, and any change in the Chatbot Arena rankings before the June 30 check. If Baidu launches a stronger model or a later evaluation pushes one of its models into third place, that would support the Yes side; if another company’s model overtakes Baidu, or Baidu’s model falls below third, that would support No. Because the market is tied to a specific leaderboard and ranking rule, even small shifts near the cutoff can matter.
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-3%
24h Vol
$186.4K
Liquidity
$150.5K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should check the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard on lmarena.ai, specifically the "Text Arena | Overall" table, and make sure the Rank column is viewed with style control off, as the market rules require. The key resolution moment is June 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, and the company that owns the model in third place at that check time is what matters. If the site is unavailable, the market stays open until it returns, so any ambiguity around uptime, exact rank ties, or the company credited to a model should be reviewed against the stated tiebreak rules.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Baidu have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $791 in 24h volume, and $5K in liquidity.
Track live technology prediction markets focused on AI, major tech events, product launches, innovation forecasts, and emerging industry trends.
Yes
0.2%
No
99.9%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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