culture
😬 Cooling⚡ Tight
11%
-45%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?
24h Vol
$258.9K
Liquidity
$11.9K
Spread
1%
6/6/2026
View marketCulture
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will "Billie Jean - Michael Jackson" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?. The market currently shows a live probability of 2%, $136.5 in 24h volume, and $616.1 in liquidity.
Probability
2%
24h Volume
$136.5
Liquidity
$616.1
This market asks whether Michael Jackson’s “Billie Jean” will finish as Spotify’s most-streamed song worldwide for the chart week labeled June 12. It is worth watching because Spotify’s global charts reflect what listeners are replaying right now, so older catalog hits can sometimes surge back into the top spot.
The outcome depends on Spotify’s official weekly global songs chart, not on Billboard, radio play, or any other ranking. Here, the question is simple: when Spotify publishes the week labeled June 12, will “Billie Jean - Michael Jackson” be listed as the #1 song globally? If Spotify has not released that specific weekly chart by June 13, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to “Other.”
This market is about whether a decades-old Michael Jackson track can outrun the current week’s biggest streaming releases on Spotify worldwide. Songs like “Billie Jean” can benefit from catalog listening, viral moments, playlists, or renewed public attention, while new releases often dominate because they are heavily promoted and freshly consumed. The uncertainty is in which force wins for that specific Friday-to-Thursday streaming window.
Any evidence that “Billie Jean” is getting unusually strong streaming traction on Spotify could make a Yes outcome look more plausible, especially if the song appears to be climbing toward the top of the weekly chart. By contrast, the release or sustained dominance of another global blockbuster track would generally make No look stronger, since the market resolves only on the single #1 song. The key event is the official Friday update for the June 12 chart week, which is the only source that matters for resolution.
The current market price implies roughly a 2% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
-45%
24h Vol
$258.9K
Liquidity
$11.9K
Spread
1%
6/6/2026
View marketReaders should check Spotify’s official Charts page under the “Charts” heading, because the market resolves only from Spotify’s published global weekly top songs list. The relevant frame is the week labeled June 12, which Spotify says covers streams from the preceding Friday through Thursday, and the market deadline gives a fallback if the chart is not posted in time. A common ambiguity risk is confusing this with other song charts, local charts, or a different week label, so the exact Spotify ranking for that specific week is the decisive reference.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will "Billie Jean - Michael Jackson" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?. The market currently shows a live probability of 2%, $136.5 in 24h volume, and $616.1 in liquidity.
Track live culture prediction markets focused on entertainment, celebrity events, streaming trends, viral topics, movies, music, and global pop culture developments.
Yes
2%
No
98%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 13, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
Spotify curates a playlist of the most streamed songs globally and updates it on Fridays to reflect streaming data for the previous week, beginning on the preceding Friday and ending on Thursday. This market will resolve according to the most-streamed song globally on Spotify for the week labeled June 12. If Spotify does not release its top song for the week labeled June 12 by June 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will default to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Spotify. The weekly top songs chart can be found on open.spotify.com under the "Charts" heading.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 2%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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