economy
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
99%
-0.1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.1M
Liquidity
$985.7K
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketEconomy
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 3.50% and 3.99%?. The market currently shows a live probability of 5%, $11.7K in 24h volume, and $3.6K in liquidity.
Probability
5%
24h Volume
$11.7K
Liquidity
$3.6K
This market asks whether Brazil’s official annual inflation rate for 2026, measured by the IPCA, will land between 3.50% and 3.99%. It is tied to a specific government statistic from IBGE, so the key issue is not a forecast headline but the exact figure published in the December 2026 inflation release.
The question is about Brazil’s consumer price inflation over the 12 months ending in December 2026, using the Extended National Consumer Price Index, or IPCA, from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The market resolves from the December 2026 IBGE monthly report, scheduled for January 12, 2027, using the “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months” rate in the Period-Rate table. If that December figure is not released by the next scheduled monthly publication, the market falls back to the last available month.
Inflation can move meaningfully over a year, and the final December reading may differ from earlier trends because of seasonality, price shocks, exchange rates, regulated prices, or revisions in how the year closes. For Brazil, the IPCA is the standard official benchmark watched by households, businesses, and policymakers, so the exact band matters: this market is specifically testing whether the 12-month rate finishes inside the 3.50% to 3.99% range rather than below or above it.
The most important driver is each monthly IBGE IPCA release between now and the December 2026 report, especially whether monthly inflation prints above or below what is needed for the full-year rate to end in the target band. Changes in food, transportation, housing, fuel, and regulated prices can all shift the 12-month figure, and any unexpected acceleration or cooling in the final months of 2026 would matter directly. Because the resolution uses the official December 2026 number, any late-year change that alters the cumulative 12-month rate can move the market sharply.
Related markets
-0.1%
24h Vol
$1.1M
Liquidity
$985.7K
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 5% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should watch the official IBGE IPCA press releases, especially the December 2026 release due on January 12, 2027, and confirm the figure in the Period-Rate table under “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months.” The market rules say that the IBGE monthly report is the source of truth, and if the December data is delayed, the last available month can be used instead, so the release calendar matters. It is also worth checking that the reported metric is the IPCA annual change, not a different inflation measure, since only the IBGE IPCA number counts here.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 3.50% and 3.99%?. The market currently shows a live probability of 5%, $11.7K in 24h volume, and $3.6K in liquidity.
Track live economy prediction markets focused on inflation, recessions, GDP growth, labor markets, and major global economic developments.
Yes
5%
No
95%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jan 12, 2027. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report. The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 5%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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