finance
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
6%
-4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?
24h Vol
$187.8K
Liquidity
$149K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketTechnology
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will ByteDance have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $89.8 in 24h volume, and $3.7K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$89.8
Liquidity
$3.7K
This market asks whether ByteDance will be the company behind the No. 3 model on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard at the June 30, 2026 check. It is a narrow question about a very specific public ranking, so the key issue is not just model quality, but which company name sits in third place at the exact resolution time.
The market resolves by looking at the "Text Arena | Overall" leaderboard on lmarena.ai with Style Control On, checked at 12:00 PM ET on June 30, 2026. The company that owns the model listed in third place under the leaderboard’s Rank column is the answer, with tiebreakers applied first by Arena score, then by alphabetical order of company names if the ranking is still tied. Because ByteDance is the named company, the market is really asking whether a ByteDance-owned model will be sitting in that third slot at the scheduled check.
Chatbot Arena rankings can shift as new models are added, existing systems are updated, and leaderboard scores move over time. ByteDance is a major technology company best known globally for owning TikTok’s parent business, but in this market what matters is whether one of its AI models can climb into the top three on this public benchmark by the June 2026 cutoff. The uncertainty is about both model performance and how the leaderboard order stands on the exact resolution date.
Price can move if ByteDance launches a stronger model, updates an existing one, or if competing labs such as other large AI companies release models that push the ranking order around. Changes to the Chatbot Arena leaderboard itself also matter, especially if a model’s score changes enough to swap places near the top three or if a tie is broken by the published score details. Since the market uses the leaderboard as of one specific check time, even small ranking changes close to the deadline can matter.
Related markets
-4%
24h Vol
$187.8K
Liquidity
$149K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The main thing to verify is the exact leaderboard page and tab used for resolution: the "Text Arena | Overall" view with Style Control On at lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text. Readers should watch the Rank column, the published Arena scores, and any tie situation, since the rules specify a score-based and then alphabetical tiebreaker. It is also important to note the resolution time, 12:00 PM ET on June 30, 2026, and the fallback rule that if the leaderboard is down at check time, the market stays open until it can be checked again.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will ByteDance have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $89.8 in 24h volume, and $3.7K in liquidity.
Track live technology prediction markets focused on AI, major tech events, product launches, innovation forecasts, and emerging industry trends.
Yes
0.2%
No
99.9%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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