
+0.1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$2M
Liquidity
$1.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $647K in 24h volume, and $24.1K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$647K
Liquidity
$24.1K
This market asks whether Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior, better known as Ratinho Júnior, will end up in second place in the first round of Brazil’s 2026 presidential election. It is tied to the October 4, 2026 vote, so the key question is not whether he wins the presidency, but whether he finishes with the second-highest total of valid votes on that first ballot.
Brazil elects its president by popular vote, and if no one wins outright in the first round, the top two finishers advance to a runoff. Here, the market is focused on one specific candidate, Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior, and whether he ranks second among all candidates after the first-round vote count is finalized. The market’s own rules say it resolves using the official first-round result reported by Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE), with ties broken by alphabetical order of last names if that ever matters.
There is real uncertainty because a first-round presidential race can be crowded, and several candidates may compete for the same pool of votes. Ratinho Júnior’s standing depends on campaign dynamics, party alliances, and how the electorate splits among major and minor contenders before election day. Readers following this market are really watching whether he can hold a position near the top of the field rather than simply remain a visible candidate.
Anything that changes Ratinho Júnior’s relative standing in the race can move this market, especially official announcements about candidacy, party support, or coalition building. Polling changes, candidate withdrawals, debates, endorsements, and shifts in how opponents are expected to divide the vote would all matter because the contract is about his finishing place, not his vote share alone. Because the resolution depends on the first-round ranking, developments that alter the number of serious contenders are especially important.
Related markets

+0.1%
24h Vol
$2M
Liquidity
$1.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The most important source of truth is the official first-round count from the TSE, since the rules say the market resolves on the election result as officially reported if there is any ambiguity. Readers should pay attention to whether Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior is formally on the ballot, how the TSE publishes the valid-vote totals, and whether any disputes or recount issues affect the final ranking. The market also has a fallback deadline: if the result is not definitively known by June 30, 2027, it resolves to Other, so that date matters if the election outcome remains unresolved.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $647K in 24h volume, and $24.1K in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
0.3%
No
99.8%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Oct 4, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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