economy
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
-0.1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $18.2K in 24h volume, and $103K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$18.2K
Liquidity
$103K
This market asks whether Chad Bianco will win the 2026 California governor’s race, a contest that will shape who leads the country’s most populous state. California’s governor controls the state budget, agencies, and a wide set of policy priorities, so the outcome matters well beyond a single office.
The question is simple: will Chad Bianco be the declared winner of the California gubernatorial election scheduled for November 3, 2026? Bianco is the named candidate in the title, and the market will be resolved against the actual winner of that election rather than against campaign momentum or polling. If the race is still not confirmed by July 31, 2027, the market is set to resolve to "Other."
There is uncertainty because California governor elections are decided by votes, ballot counting, and official certification, and the outcome is not known until those processes finish. Readers may care because gubernatorial elections often reflect the state’s political direction and can become national reference points for party strength. The market is pricing a very specific disagreement: whether Bianco can actually win the 2026 statewide race.
Price can move if Bianco formally enters or expands his campaign, if major opponents emerge or fall away, or if official campaign developments change the shape of the race. Polling, endorsements, fundraising, and debate performance can matter because they affect whether a candidate looks viable in a statewide contest. Once voting begins, county returns, election-night projections, and later certification steps will be especially important under the market’s resolution rules.
The current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
-0.1%
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe key details to watch are the election date, the official winner, and the market’s source hierarchy: Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC must all call the race for the same candidate, or else official certification is used. Because California can take time to count ballots, readers should pay attention to whether the race is called quickly or only after certification. Also note the long stop date: if results are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, the market resolves to "Other," so a delayed or disputed outcome could matter as much as the vote itself.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $18.2K in 24h volume, and $103K in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
0.3%
No
99.8%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Nov 3, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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