world
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
7%
+0.4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
24h Vol
$1.3M
Liquidity
$779.5K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketWorld
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 3%, $15.9K in 24h volume, and $86.2K in liquidity.
Probability
3%
24h Volume
$15.9K
Liquidity
$86.2K
This market asks whether China will start a military offensive aimed at taking control of any part of Taiwan before September 30, 2026. It is a high-stakes question because Taiwan is self-governed, Beijing claims the island as part of China, and any move from rhetoric to military action would be a major escalation in the Taiwan Strait. The market is also sensitive to how the rules define “invasion,” since even activity around Taiwan’s inhabited islands can matter here.
The key issue is not just whether tensions rise, but whether China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by the deadline of 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. The market specifically says inhabited islands administered by Taiwan count, while uninhabited islands do not. Resolution can rely on official confirmation from China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or a permanent UN Security Council member, and it can also use a consensus of credible reporting.
China and Taiwan have long been in a tense political and military standoff, but the exact point at which that pressure would become a qualifying invasion is uncertain. Readers care because a military move across the Taiwan Strait would have major consequences for regional security, trade routes, and relations among the United States, China, and allies in Asia. The market is pricing disagreement over whether Beijing will stay with coercion and deterrence or cross into direct combat operations before the deadline.
The price can move on any official statement or verified reporting that suggests China has begun a qualifying offensive, especially if it involves air, naval, missile, amphibious, or occupation activity against Taiwan or its inhabited offshore islands. It can also shift if Taiwan or outside governments announce emergency military responses, evacuations, or confirmed clashes that appear to fit the market’s definition. Short of that, major diplomatic developments, large-scale exercises, or public warnings from governments may change expectations if they look like preparation for or deterrence of an attack.
Related markets
+0.4%
24h Vol
$1.3M
Liquidity
$779.5K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 3% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before the market resolves, the most important thing to check is whether any action meets the exact wording: a military offensive intended to establish control over Taiwanese territory, with the deadline set at 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. Because the source of truth allows official confirmation or a consensus of credible reporting, readers should watch for clear statements from China, Taiwan, the UN, or permanent Security Council members, as well as consistent reporting that describes the same event. Ambiguity is most likely around drills versus attacks, uninhabited versus inhabited islands, and whether an incident is serious enough to count as an offensive rather than a warning or exercise.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 3%, $15.9K in 24h volume, and $86.2K in liquidity.
Track live world event prediction markets focused on geopolitics, international relations, global conflicts, diplomacy, and major worldwide developments.
Yes
2.6%
No
97.4%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Sep 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 3%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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