
-0.1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.3M
Liquidity
$1.1M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketEconomy
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Core CPI MoM be 0.0% in May?. The market currently shows a live probability of 14%, $30.1 in 24h volume, and $763.5 in liquidity.
Probability
14%
24h Volume
$30.1
Liquidity
$763.5
This market is about whether the Bureau of Labor Statistics will report core CPI at exactly 0.0% month over month for May 2026. It is worth watching because the monthly core inflation print is one of the cleanest official gauges of underlying price pressure in the U.S., and even a one-tenth-point difference changes the outcome here.
The question is narrow: when the BLS publishes the May 2026 Consumer Price Index report, will the seasonally adjusted CPI for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy, or core CPI-U, show a one-month change of 0.0%? The BLS release is currently scheduled for June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET, and the market resolves from that official monthly news release using the one-decimal figure BLS prints.
Core CPI can land anywhere from negative to positive territory depending on the mix of shelter, services, goods, and other components in a given month, so an exact 0.0% reading is a specific and uncertain threshold. Readers care because this figure is closely watched for signals about inflation momentum, and the market is pricing whether the final rounded BLS number lands on zero rather than 0.1% or another value.
The biggest price moves usually come from changes in expectations around the upcoming BLS release, especially whether analysts think core inflation will round to 0.0% or to a small positive number. Any shift in the consensus view of shelter, services, airfare, medical care, or core goods prices can matter here, because those components feed directly into the monthly core CPI calculation. Since the market resolves on the published one-decimal figure, even a tiny change in the underlying estimate can flip the outcome.
The current market price implies roughly a 14% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets

-0.1%
24h Vol
$1.3M
Liquidity
$1.1M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe key item to watch is the official BLS CPI news release for May 2026, not commentary or secondary summaries. This market resolves from the one-month percent change in seasonally adjusted core CPI-U as reported by BLS, and the one-decimal precision shown in that release is what counts. If BLS delays the report, the market remains open until the next scheduled CPI release window, so readers should verify the publication date and the exact printed figure before treating the market as settled.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Core CPI MoM be 0.0% in May?. The market currently shows a live probability of 14%, $30.1 in 24h volume, and $763.5 in liquidity.
Track live economy prediction markets focused on inflation, recessions, GDP growth, labor markets, and major global economic developments.
Yes
14%
No
86%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 10, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) in May 2026 according to the monthly BLS report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports one month percent change in core inflation (all items less food and energy) to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 14%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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