
-0.1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.3M
Liquidity
$1.1M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketEconomy
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in May?. The market currently shows a live probability of 26%, $30.1 in 24h volume, and $833 in liquidity.
Probability
26%
24h Volume
$30.1
Liquidity
$833
This market asks whether the Bureau of Labor Statistics will report core Consumer Price Index inflation at 0.1% month over month for May 2026. Core CPI is the closely watched measure that strips out food and energy, so it often gets attention as a cleaner read on underlying price pressures. The answer will be set by the official BLS CPI release scheduled for June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
The specific metric here is the one-month percent change in seasonally adjusted Core CPI-U, which the BLS publishes in its monthly Consumer Price Index report. For this market to resolve “Yes,” the May 2026 figure must round to 0.1% in the BLS release, because the market uses the report’s one-decimal precision. If the report is delayed, the rules say resolution can shift to the next scheduled CPI release, and if the relevant data still is not available by then, the market falls back to the most recent previous month with available data.
There is room for disagreement because monthly core inflation can land in a narrow band around the 0.1% mark, and the BLS number is sensitive to changes across many categories of goods and services. Readers care because this single print can shape views about inflation momentum and how quickly price growth is cooling or sticking. The market is pricing whether May’s core reading will match that exact decimal outcome, not whether inflation is generally high or low.
Any new information that changes expectations for the May CPI release can move this market, especially official or widely watched signals about rent, shelter, airfares, medical care, used cars, and other core components. Because the market hinges on a single decimal point, even a small shift in estimated monthly inflation can change whether the final report lands at 0.1% or another rounded value. Traders also tend to react to late-month economic data and seasonal adjustment expectations when they point toward a firmer or softer BLS print.
Related markets

-0.1%
24h Vol
$1.3M
Liquidity
$1.1M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 26% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key source of truth is the BLS Consumer Price Index news release for May 2026, not headlines, estimates, or later revisions. Readers should check the release time, the exact one-month percent change for Core CPI-U, and the rule that resolution uses the published figure to one decimal place. One ambiguity to keep in mind is that if the scheduled report is delayed, the market may stay open until the next CPI release window, so the official BLS schedule matters as much as the report itself.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in May?. The market currently shows a live probability of 26%, $30.1 in 24h volume, and $833 in liquidity.
Track live economy prediction markets focused on inflation, recessions, GDP growth, labor markets, and major global economic developments.
Yes
25.5%
No
74.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 10, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) in May 2026 according to the monthly BLS report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports one month percent change in core inflation (all items less food and energy) to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 26%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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