
-0.1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.3M
Liquidity
$1.1M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketEconomy
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Core CPI MoM be -0.1% in May?. The market currently shows a live probability of 17%, $30.1 in 24h volume, and $993.3 in liquidity.
Probability
17%
24h Volume
$30.1
Liquidity
$993.3
This market asks whether U.S. core CPI for May 2026 will print at -0.1% month over month in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ official CPI release. Core CPI strips out food and energy, so it is a closely watched gauge of underlying inflation pressure rather than headline price swings. The result will be determined by the BLS monthly report scheduled for June 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET.
The question here is very specific: will the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy, for May 2026, be reported as -0.1% on a one-month basis? The BLS publishes this figure in its monthly Consumer Price Index news release, and this market resolves using that official number rounded to one decimal place. If the report is delayed, the market can stay open until the next scheduled CPI release window, and if no May 2026 figure is available by then, the rules point to the most recent prior month with data.
Core CPI is one of the main monthly inflation readings used by economists, policymakers, and market watchers because it helps show whether inflation is broadening or easing underneath volatile food and energy prices. A reading of -0.1% would be a mild monthly decline, which is unusual enough to draw attention and also close enough to zero that small changes in the BLS calculation can matter. The market is pricing disagreement over whether May’s core prices will land exactly at that negative tenth or somewhere else.
The biggest price movers will be the official BLS CPI release and any pre-release clues about the likely direction of shelter, services, transportation, medical care, and other core categories. Because the contract resolves on a single rounded decimal, even a small deviation such as 0.0% or -0.2% would be enough to settle the market the other way. Any late changes to the BLS publication schedule would also matter because the rules specify how the market rolls forward if the May report is delayed.
Related markets

-0.1%
24h Vol
$1.3M
Liquidity
$1.1M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 17% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before resolution, readers should verify the exact BLS release date, the headline core CPI month-over-month figure, and that the number is for May 2026 and seasonally adjusted. The source of truth is the BLS CPI news release, not commentary, forecasts, or alternate inflation measures, and the contract uses the one-decimal published value. The main ambiguity risk is simple rounding: the market is not asking whether core inflation was roughly negative, but whether the official figure prints exactly -0.1%.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Core CPI MoM be -0.1% in May?. The market currently shows a live probability of 17%, $30.1 in 24h volume, and $993.3 in liquidity.
Track live economy prediction markets focused on inflation, recessions, GDP growth, labor markets, and major global economic developments.
Yes
16.6%
No
83.4%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 10, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) in May 2026 according to the monthly BLS report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports one month percent change in core inflation (all items less food and energy) to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 17%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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