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Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$1M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketEconomy
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in May?. The market currently shows a live probability of 49%, $75.5 in 24h volume, and $817.5 in liquidity.
Probability
49%
24h Volume
$75.5
Liquidity
$817.5
This market asks a very specific inflation question: will the Bureau of Labor Statistics report core CPI rising 0.2% month over month for May 2026? Core CPI strips out food and energy, so it is closely watched as a cleaner read on underlying price pressures than headline inflation. Because the answer comes from one official monthly release and is resolved to one decimal place, even a small difference from 0.2% matters.
The event here is the BLS Consumer Price Index report for May 2026, scheduled for release on June 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. The market resolves to the one-month percent change in seasonally adjusted Core CPI-U, meaning the CPI for all urban consumers excluding food and energy, as published in that monthly report. If the BLS release is delayed, the market can stay open until the next scheduled CPI release, and if the needed figures still are not available, it falls back to the most recent prior month with data.
Readers care because core CPI is one of the main official gauges of underlying inflation in the U.S., and a 0.2% reading is a common reference point for whether price growth is cooling, sticky, or running hotter than expected. The uncertainty is simple: monthly inflation can shift from one release to the next because of housing, services, and other broad price changes, and the market is pricing whether the May figure lands exactly on the 0.2% mark. Since the contract resolves to the rounded monthly figure in the BLS release, the distinction between 0.1%, 0.2%, and 0.3% is what matters.
The most important driver is the actual BLS CPI print itself, especially the core index change reported for May 2026. Anything that would lead market participants to expect firmer or softer services inflation, shelter costs, or other large components could shift views ahead of the release, but the contract will ultimately move on the official number, not on any estimate. Because the market is narrowly centered on a single decimal outcome, even small revisions in expectations for the report can matter.
Related markets

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24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$1M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 49% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before the release, the key things to verify are the exact BLS publication date and time, the monthly CPI news release, and the specific one-month percentage change for Core CPI-U excluding food and energy. The market uses the official BLS figure and rounds only to one decimal place, so the resolution question is not the unrounded underlying data but the published monthly result. If the report is delayed or if there is any ambiguity about the relevant month, the market rules point to the next scheduled release and, ultimately, the most recent month with available BLS data.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in May?. The market currently shows a live probability of 49%, $75.5 in 24h volume, and $817.5 in liquidity.
Track live economy prediction markets focused on inflation, recessions, GDP growth, labor markets, and major global economic developments.
Yes
49%
No
51%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 10, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) in May 2026 according to the monthly BLS report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports one month percent change in core inflation (all items less food and energy) to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 49%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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