
-0.1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.3M
Liquidity
$1.1M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketEconomy
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Core CPI MoM be -0.2% in May?. The market currently shows a live probability of 24%, $30.1 in 24h volume, and $838.8 in liquidity.
Probability
24%
24h Volume
$30.1
Liquidity
$838.8
This market asks whether the Bureau of Labor Statistics will report core CPI up just 0.0% rounded to one decimal place, which corresponds to an underlying monthly change that rounds to -0.2% in May 2026. Core CPI is watched closely because it strips out food and energy and is often used as a cleaner read on inflation trends than the headline CPI number.
The event is tied to the BLS Consumer Price Index report for May 2026, scheduled for release on June 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. The outcome will be based on the official seasonally adjusted one-month percent change in CPI-U excluding food and energy, reported to one decimal place in the BLS news release. If the BLS does not publish the data on the scheduled date, the market follows the next CPI release timing described in the rules, and if no relevant figures are available by then, it falls back to the most recent prior month with available data.
This market is centered on a very specific inflation print, and small differences in the monthly core CPI number can matter a lot because the BLS rounds to one decimal place. Traders are effectively weighing whether May’s core inflation will come in weak enough to print at -0.2% after rounding, versus a flatter or positive reading that would resolve the market the other way. The uncertainty comes from how price changes across housing, services, goods, and seasonal adjustment will land in the official government data.
Any information that helps set expectations for the May 2026 BLS report can move this market, especially clues about broad inflation pressure in shelter, core services, and goods categories. The price can also shift if market participants reassess how the BLS seasonal adjustments may affect the month-over-month figure, since the market resolves on the published rounded number rather than a broader inflation trend. Because the deadline is the June 10 release, the final move usually comes from anticipation of the report itself and the exact one-decimal result.
Related markets

-0.1%
24h Vol
$1.3M
Liquidity
$1.1M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 24% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key source of truth is the BLS CPI news release for May 2026, not estimates, commentary, or alternative inflation measures. Readers should check the line for Core CPI-U, the seasonally adjusted month-over-month change excluding food and energy, and pay attention to BLS rounding to one decimal place because that determines the resolution. The main ambiguity risk is wording: the market is not asking about headline CPI, year-over-year inflation, or any private estimate, but specifically the May monthly core number in the official BLS report.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Core CPI MoM be -0.2% in May?. The market currently shows a live probability of 24%, $30.1 in 24h volume, and $838.8 in liquidity.
Track live economy prediction markets focused on inflation, recessions, GDP growth, labor markets, and major global economic developments.
Yes
23.8%
No
76.1%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 10, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) in May 2026 according to the monthly BLS report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports one month percent change in core inflation (all items less food and energy) to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 24%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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