
-0.1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.3M
Liquidity
$1.1M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketEconomy
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in May?. The market currently shows a live probability of 35%, $30.1 in 24h volume, and $1.1K in liquidity.
Probability
35%
24h Volume
$30.1
Liquidity
$1.1K
This market asks whether the Bureau of Labor Statistics will report core CPI rising 0.3% month over month in May 2026. It is worth watching because core CPI is one of the main readings used to judge underlying inflation, and even a one-tenth-point difference can change the headline story the market is trying to price.
The event is the BLS monthly Consumer Price Index release for May 2026, specifically the seasonally adjusted CPI for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy, usually called core CPI-U. The market resolves to “Yes” only if the official BLS report shows the one-month percent change for May at 0.3%, using the one-decimal precision in the release. The scheduled publication time is June 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET, and if that release is delayed the market stays open until the next scheduled CPI report window described in the rules.
Readers care about this because core CPI is a closely watched measure of underlying price pressure, and it often feeds expectations about inflation trends, monetary policy, and broader economic momentum. The question here is not whether inflation is high or low in general, but whether May’s core monthly change lands exactly on 0.3% rather than 0.2% or 0.4%, which is a narrow but important distinction for anyone following the data release.
The biggest price move will usually come from the BLS release itself, since the market resolves on the official number and only to one decimal place. In the days before publication, traders may adjust based on what economists expect for shelter, services, and other core components, since those categories tend to drive the monthly reading. If the BLS changes the publication date or a data issue delays the report, the market’s resolution timing could also shift under the stated rules.
The current market price implies roughly a 35% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets

-0.1%
24h Vol
$1.3M
Liquidity
$1.1M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe key source of truth is the BLS CPI news release for May 2026, not secondary summaries or commentary. Before resolution, check that the report is for the seasonally adjusted core CPI-U and that the published one-month percent change is being quoted to one decimal place, because that exact rounding determines the outcome. Also verify whether the report is released on June 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET as scheduled, since the rules say a delay can push resolution to the next CPI release window if needed.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in May?. The market currently shows a live probability of 35%, $30.1 in 24h volume, and $1.1K in liquidity.
Track live economy prediction markets focused on inflation, recessions, GDP growth, labor markets, and major global economic developments.
Yes
34.5%
No
65.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 10, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) in May 2026 according to the monthly BLS report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports one month percent change in core inflation (all items less food and energy) to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 35%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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