
-0.1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.3M
Liquidity
$1.1M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketEconomy
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Core CPI MoM be 0.4% in May?. The market currently shows a live probability of 8%, $30.1 in 24h volume, and $904.6 in liquidity.
Probability
8%
24h Volume
$30.1
Liquidity
$904.6
This market asks whether the Bureau of Labor Statistics will report a 0.4% month-over-month increase in core CPI for May 2026. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, is a closely watched inflation measure because it is often used to gauge underlying price pressure rather than short-term swings in gasoline or groceries.
The outcome is tied to the BLS Consumer Price Index release for May 2026, scheduled for June 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. It will resolve to “Yes” only if the official monthly report shows the seasonally adjusted one-month percent change in Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy, rounded and published to one decimal place, as exactly 0.4%.
There is often uncertainty around whether core inflation lands on a specific monthly figure because small changes in shelter, services, and other major categories can shift the reading by a tenth of a point. A 0.4% print matters because it signals a firmer inflation pace than a softer 0.2% or 0.3% reading, and those small differences can influence how investors, businesses, and policymakers interpret the trend.
Any pre-release signal that changes expectations for the BLS report can move this market, especially estimates for shelter, airfare, used cars, medical care, and other core components that tend to drive monthly CPI surprises. The price can also react to the BLS release itself if the published May figure lands near 0.4%, or if revised seasonal patterns and rounding make the final one-decimal reading differ from broader market expectations.
The current market price implies roughly a 8% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets

-0.1%
24h Vol
$1.3M
Liquidity
$1.1M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe source of truth is the official BLS CPI news release for May 2026, not commentary, secondary summaries, or alternative inflation trackers. Readers should verify the exact reported one-month percent change for core CPI-U in the BLS table and note that the market resolves on the published one-decimal figure, so a result of 0.34% would not count as 0.4%. If the scheduled release is delayed, the market may remain open until the next CPI release window, so the timing and final BLS publication should be checked carefully.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Core CPI MoM be 0.4% in May?. The market currently shows a live probability of 8%, $30.1 in 24h volume, and $904.6 in liquidity.
Track live economy prediction markets focused on inflation, recessions, GDP growth, labor markets, and major global economic developments.
Yes
7.5%
No
92.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 10, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) in May 2026 according to the monthly BLS report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports one month percent change in core inflation (all items less food and energy) to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 8%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

-4%
24h Vol
$529.4K
Liquidity
$535.8K
Spread
1%
6/30/2026
View market
--
24h Vol
$42.2K
Liquidity
$200.5K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View market
-3%
24h Vol
$129.7K
Liquidity
$206.7K
Spread
1%
7/31/2026
View market
+1%
24h Vol
$49.1K
Liquidity
$62.9K
Spread
1%
6/30/2026
View market
-0.6%
24h Vol
$240.7K
Liquidity
$397K
Spread
0%
6/15/2026
View market