
-0.1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.2M
Liquidity
$1.1M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketEconomy
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Core CPI MoM be 0.6% or more in May?. The market currently shows a live probability of 34%, $22.6 in 24h volume, and $238.3 in liquidity.
Probability
34%
24h Volume
$22.6
Liquidity
$238.3
This market asks whether U.S. core inflation, as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, will come in at 0.6% or higher for May 2026. It is focused on the monthly change in the seasonally adjusted CPI excluding food and energy, which is one of the most watched official inflation gauges because it strips out two volatile categories.
The question is tied to the BLS Consumer Price Index report for May 2026, scheduled for release on June 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. The outcome will be based on the official one-month percent change in Core CPI-U, and because the BLS reports this figure to one decimal place, the market resolves using that published reading rather than any unofficial estimate or rounded interpretation.
Core CPI often moves in small increments, but a reading of 0.6% or more would signal a noticeably hotter month than many observers expect in a normal inflation environment. Traders and readers watch this number because it can influence views on the inflation trend, but the market itself is simply pricing the uncertainty around whether the BLS print will hit that threshold.
The price will move most on expectations for the May BLS release, including any strong or weak monthly inflation signals that may be reflected in official commentary, prior CPI components, or broad economic conditions heading into the report date. Because the threshold is exactly 0.6%, even small changes in expectations for shelter, services, or other core categories can matter a lot. If the release is delayed, the market rules say resolution can shift to the next CPI publication window.
The current market price implies roughly a 34% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets

-0.1%
24h Vol
$1.2M
Liquidity
$1.1M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketBefore resolution, the key item to verify is the official BLS CPI news release for May 2026, since that is the sole source of truth for this market. Readers should also note the one-decimal precision rule: the market resolves on the published monthly core CPI change, not on an underlying unrounded figure. The deadline in the market is June 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET, unless the BLS does not publish on schedule and the fallback timing in the rules applies.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Core CPI MoM be 0.6% or more in May?. The market currently shows a live probability of 34%, $22.6 in 24h volume, and $238.3 in liquidity.
Track live economy prediction markets focused on inflation, recessions, GDP growth, labor markets, and major global economic developments.
Yes
33.9%
No
66.1%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 10, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) in May 2026 according to the monthly BLS report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports one month percent change in core inflation (all items less food and energy) to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 34%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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