culture
😬 Cooling⚡ Tight
8%
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Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?
24h Vol
$238.1K
Liquidity
$14.7K
Spread
1%
6/6/2026
View marketCulture
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will "David" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?. The market currently shows a live probability of 86%, $253 in 24h volume, and $179.5 in liquidity.
Probability
86%
24h Volume
$253
Liquidity
$179.5
This market asks whether a movie titled "David" will land at No. 2 on Netflix’s U.S. weekly movie chart. It is tied to a specific Netflix Top 10 update on Tuesday, June 9, 2026, which makes the question about one exact ranking, not a general performance trend. Because Netflix’s weekly lists are widely watched as a sign of what people are actually streaming, this is the kind of market that can move quickly once the update is posted.
The event here is the next U.S. Netflix movies ranking published on top10.netflix.com, using viewing data from the prior Monday through Sunday window. The market resolves to Yes if the movie identified as "David" is ranked #2 in the U.S. movies list in that update, and No if something else takes that slot. If Netflix does not publish the update by June 12, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to Other.
The uncertainty comes from the fact that Netflix does not pre-announce the exact weekly order, even when a title is available and drawing attention. A movie can rise or fall based on broad audience interest, marketing, word of mouth, release timing, and how much competition it faces from other Netflix films that week. Readers care because the #2 position is a very specific benchmark: close enough to the top to signal strong viewing, but still vulnerable to one or two better-performing titles.
The main price-moving signal is the actual Top 10 update from Netflix on June 9, especially the U.S. movies list where the ranking is determined by total views. If "David" has a strong release week, stays visible on the platform, or benefits from a slower slate of competing films, that supports the Yes side; if another movie clearly outperforms it, that pushes toward No. Any delay or absence of the scheduled update would matter too, because the market has a built-in fallback to Other if the list is not posted by the deadline.
Related markets
-43%
24h Vol
$238.1K
Liquidity
$14.7K
Spread
1%
6/6/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 86% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key thing to verify is the exact Netflix source of truth: the U.S. movie ranking on top10.netflix.com, not a third-party chart or a global list. Readers should check that the update is posted on Tuesday, June 9, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET and that it reflects the weekly Monday-through-Sunday viewing window described in the market rules. One potential ambiguity is the title itself—"David" must match the movie name used in the Netflix ranking, so the precise wording on the chart matters for resolution.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will "David" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?. The market currently shows a live probability of 86%, $253 in 24h volume, and $179.5 in liquidity.
Track live culture prediction markets focused on entertainment, celebrity events, streaming trends, viral topics, movies, music, and global pop culture developments.
Yes
85.5%
No
14.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 10, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, June 9, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #2 US Netflix movie. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for movies. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by June 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Probability signal
The current price implies a strong favorite, so new information would need to be meaningful to move the market sharply.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 86%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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