finance
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
6%
-4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?
24h Vol
$187.8K
Liquidity
$149K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketTechnology
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will DeepSeek have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $962.7 in 24h volume, and $5.6K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$962.7
Liquidity
$5.6K
This market asks whether DeepSeek will be the company behind the model ranked third on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at the June 30, 2026 check. DeepSeek matters here because the market is not about model quality in the abstract, but about a very specific public ranking published by LMArena at a fixed time. The answer depends on where DeepSeek’s model sits in that leaderboard snapshot, not on broader reputation or product buzz.
The event is defined by the Chatbot Arena "Text Arena | Overall" leaderboard on lmarena.ai, using the Rank column with style control turned off. On June 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, the market will look at which company is attached to the model in third place under the rules in the description. If two models are tied, the market uses Arena score, including unrounded underlying values, and then company name order as a final tiebreaker.
DeepSeek is a major AI model developer, and its standing can move as new model releases, leaderboard updates, or ranking changes affect the public arena table. The uncertainty here is not whether DeepSeek is a known player, but whether it will specifically hold the third slot at the exact resolution time. That makes the market a narrow test of one company’s position relative to other leading AI labs and model providers.
A new DeepSeek model release, a shift in Chatbot Arena rankings, or a competitor overtaking it could change the market’s outlook quickly. Because the market keys off the leaderboard snapshot rather than subjective model quality, even small ranking changes, tie-break changes, or updates to the Arena score can matter. Any movement in the live leaderboard near the end of June 2026 would be especially important.
The current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
-4%
24h Vol
$187.8K
Liquidity
$149K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketBefore resolution, readers should check the exact leaderboard page named in the rules: the Text Arena | Overall tab with style control off, at the stated June 30, 2026 12:00 PM ET check time. The key details are the rank order, then the unrounded Arena score if there is a tie, and finally the company-name tiebreaker if needed. It is also worth verifying whether the leaderboard is online at the check time, since the market says it stays open until the source is available again if the site is down.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will DeepSeek have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $962.7 in 24h volume, and $5.6K in liquidity.
Track live technology prediction markets focused on AI, major tech events, product launches, innovation forecasts, and emerging industry trends.
Yes
0.2%
No
99.9%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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