
-2.7%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?
24h Vol
$221.3K
Liquidity
$33.9K
Spread
0%
6/6/2026
View marketCulture
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $5.7K in 24h volume, and $181.1K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$5.7K
Liquidity
$181.1K
This market asks whether Dinorah Figuera will officially be the head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026. Figuera is a Venezuelan opposition politician, so the key issue is not just whether she remains politically active, but whether she is formally recognized in the country’s top executive role by the cutoff date. The answer depends on official status, not speculation or informal claims.
The contract resolves to the person who officially holds the position of head of state of Venezuela on Dec. 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. Under the rules, that means the individual must be formally appointed, confirmed if required, and sworn in, or otherwise clearly recognized by official government information as head of state. If the Venezuelan government is unclear, the fallback source is the UN listing for head of state; if no one holds the office, the market resolves to “No Head of State.”
This market is really about whether Dinorah Figuera could become the formally recognized national leader of Venezuela by the end of 2026. That creates uncertainty because Venezuela’s political situation has featured contested authority and competing claims over legitimacy, which makes the exact official status important. Readers are effectively weighing whether a formal transfer, recognition, or constitutional arrangement could put Figuera in the top office by the deadline.
The most important price-moving events would be any official Venezuelan announcement naming a head of state, any sworn-in inauguration, or any UN protocol listing that changes the recognized officeholder. A new interim government arrangement, a constitutional transition, or a clear split between competing claims could also matter, but only if it changes who is officially treated as head of state under the rules. By contrast, public support, speeches, nominations, or informal leadership claims would not be enough unless they are followed by formal recognition.
Related markets

-2.7%
24h Vol
$221.3K
Liquidity
$33.9K
Spread
0%
6/6/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key thing to verify is the exact official status on Dec. 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET, because that timestamp controls resolution. The market’s source hierarchy is important: first check whether the Venezuelan government clearly states who the head of state is, then check the UN head-of-state listing if it does not. Ambiguity could arise if more than one person is claimed or listed, so the decisive question is who is officially recognized as holding the role, not who is widely seen as influential.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $5.7K in 24h volume, and $181.1K in liquidity.
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Yes
0.2%
No
99.9%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Dec 31, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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