
-45%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?
24h Vol
$258.9K
Liquidity
$11.9K
Spread
1%
6/6/2026
View marketCulture
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $6K in 24h volume, and $60.6K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$6K
Liquidity
$60.6K
This market asks whether Diosdado Cabello Rondón will be Venezuela’s official head of state at the end of 2026. It is worth watching because the title names a specific political figure, but the resolution depends on who the Venezuelan government — or, if that is unclear, the UN protocol listing — recognizes as holding the top state role on the deadline.
The question is not simply whether Cabello remains an influential Venezuelan politician; it is whether he is the person who officially holds the position of head of state on Dec. 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. The rules say the market resolves to the individual formally appointed, confirmed if needed, and sworn in as head of state, or otherwise identified by official government information. If the government does not clearly state who that is, the fallback source is the UN head-of-state listing; if no one holds the office, the result is “No Head of State.”
Venezuela’s top political roles can be hard to parse from outside because power, office titles, and public recognition do not always line up neatly. That creates uncertainty over whether a named figure like Cabello could ever become the officially recognized head of state by the end of 2026, especially if there are changes in succession, appointment, or constitutional procedure. The market is pricing a specific institutional outcome, not just Cabello’s public prominence.
Any official announcement that names a new head of state, sets an effective date, or confirms a transfer of authority would be the most important driver. The price could also move if there is ambiguity in government statements, if multiple people are described as holding top authority, or if the UN listing changes to reflect a different official. Because the resolution depends on formal recognition, even a widely discussed political role that is not legally effective would not be enough.
Related markets

-45%
24h Vol
$258.9K
Liquidity
$11.9K
Spread
1%
6/6/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should check the exact office status on the deadline, not just media descriptions of influence or leadership. The key source of truth is the Venezuelan government’s official information; if that is unclear, the market says to use the UN protocol listing for head of state. The main ambiguity risk is a situation where Cabello is announced, designated, or politically prominent but not formally appointed and sworn in by Dec. 31, 2026.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $6K in 24h volume, and $60.6K in liquidity.
Track live culture prediction markets focused on entertainment, celebrity events, streaming trends, viral topics, movies, music, and global pop culture developments.
Yes
0.5%
No
99.6%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Dec 31, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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