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Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
24h Vol
$541.6K
Liquidity
$255.9K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Discord’s market cap be between $15B and $20B at market close on IPO day?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $227.2 in 24h volume, and $3.6K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$227.2
Liquidity
$3.6K
This market asks whether Discord will debut on public markets with a closing-day valuation between $15 billion and $20 billion. Discord is a widely used chat and community platform, so its IPO pricing and first-day trading performance matter because they help set the company’s opening market value.
The event is tied to Discord’s first day of trading on a public exchange, with the result determined by the company’s market capitalization at the official closing price. If Discord has not completed an IPO by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to the separate “No IPO by June 30, 2026” outcome. The market is looking specifically for a closing valuation in the $15 billion to $20 billion range, and if the final figure lands exactly on a boundary between brackets, the higher bracket wins.
An IPO valuation can vary a lot depending on how many shares are outstanding, the offering price, and how the stock trades once the market opens. For Discord, that uncertainty is especially relevant because the company has long been viewed as a prominent private software platform, but the public market may price it differently on listing day. Traders here are essentially weighing whether the company’s first closing valuation will land in this middle range rather than below it or above it.
The biggest price-moving developments are the company’s actual IPO filing, the number of shares offered, the stated price range, and any updates to the expected share count used to calculate market cap. Once trading begins, the first-day close on the primary exchange will be the key number, so strong demand, weak demand, or a shortened trading session could all affect where the closing valuation lands. If the IPO is delayed or never happens by the deadline, that outcome becomes decisive for the market.
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24h Vol
$541.6K
Liquidity
$255.9K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should watch for Discord’s official listing details, especially the exchange, the offering size, and the final closing price on day one, because the market cap is based on the closing share price multiplied by shares outstanding. The rules say the primary exchange’s official listing page is the main source of truth, and if that does not show the needed figure, another reliable source can be used. The deadline is June 30, 2026, and if there is no IPO by then, the market does not resolve on valuation at all but on the no-IPO condition instead.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Discord’s market cap be between $15B and $20B at market close on IPO day?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $227.2 in 24h volume, and $3.6K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
0.4%
No
99.7%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve based on Discord's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Discord’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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