
--
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
24h Vol
$530.7K
Liquidity
$251.1K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Discord’s market cap be between $20B and $25B at market close on IPO day?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $247.2 in 24h volume, and $5.1K in liquidity.
Probability
1%
24h Volume
$247.2
Liquidity
$5.1K
This market is asking whether Discord’s value on the stock market will land in a fairly specific band on its IPO day: between $20 billion and $25 billion at the closing price. For readers, the key point is that it is not about Discord’s private-company valuation in general, but about the company’s market capitalization as determined by its first official trading close.
Discord is a communications platform widely used for group chat, gaming communities, and online communities more broadly. The market resolves on the company’s market capitalization at the close of its first day of trading, calculated from the official closing share price and the number of shares outstanding. If Discord does not go public by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market resolves to "No IPO by June 30, 2026."
The uncertainty here is about both timing and pricing: Discord may or may not reach an IPO by the deadline, and if it does, the first-day trading price could place its market cap above, below, or inside the $20 billion to $25 billion range. That range is narrow enough that small differences in the closing price or share count can change the outcome, which is why the exact bracket matters. The market is essentially pricing disagreement about whether Discord’s debut valuation will be in that window or somewhere else entirely.
The biggest price-moving developments are official ones: a filed prospectus, IPO registration updates, an announced offering size, and especially the first-day closing price once trading begins. Changes in the expected share count, any adjustment to the float, or a delayed listing would also matter because the market cap is calculated from both shares outstanding and the closing price. If the company does not list before the deadline, that alone determines the outcome under the rules.
Related markets

--
24h Vol
$530.7K
Liquidity
$251.1K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 1% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The source of truth is the primary exchange’s official listing page, with another reliable source used only if the relevant figure is not shown there. Readers should verify whether Discord actually completes an IPO by June 30, 2026, and if it does, what official closing price is published for the first trading session. The rules also say that if trading is interrupted or shortened, the market uses the official closing price from the abbreviated session, and if no official close is published that day, it shifts to the next day with an official close. If the market cap lands exactly between two brackets, the higher range bracket wins, so that boundary rule is important on close calls.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Discord’s market cap be between $20B and $25B at market close on IPO day?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $247.2 in 24h volume, and $5.1K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
0.5%
No
99.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve based on Discord's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Discord’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 1%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

+13.7%
24h Vol
$161.2K
Liquidity
$178.5K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View market
-2%
24h Vol
$76.7K
Liquidity
$60.6K
Spread
1%
7/1/2026
View market
--
24h Vol
$35.2K
Liquidity
$128.7K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View market
+0.3%
24h Vol
$21.2K
Liquidity
$29.8K
Spread
1%
Live
View market
-0.3%
24h Vol
$19.7K
Liquidity
$34.3K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View market