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Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
24h Vol
$530.7K
Liquidity
$251.1K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Discord’s market cap be between $25B and $30B at market close on IPO day?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $227.2 in 24h volume, and $4.1K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$227.2
Liquidity
$4.1K
This market asks whether Discord’s market value will land in a specific band on the company’s first day of public trading: between $25 billion and $30 billion at the closing bell. It is worth watching because the answer depends on the IPO price, how many shares are outstanding, and where the stock finishes on day one, all of which can shift quickly around a listing.
Discord is the communications platform known for group chat, communities, voice, and gaming-related social features. The market resolves using Discord’s market capitalization at the closing price on its first trading day after an IPO, with the value calculated as shares outstanding times the official closing share price. If no IPO happens by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to the no-IPO outcome instead.
The uncertainty is not just whether Discord goes public, but what the company will be worth once the market sets a first-day price. IPO valuations often move between filing, pricing, and the opening/closing trades, so the question here is whether Discord’s debut ends up in the $25B to $30B bracket or outside it. Readers may care because this range depends on both deal structure and trading performance, and the market is specifically asking about the closing valuation, not the headline IPO value.
Any official IPO filing, pricing announcement, or exchange listing details that reveal the share count and offer price can change expectations for this market. On debut day, the closing price and any changes in the number of shares outstanding that are reflected in official listing information are the key drivers, since those inputs determine the final market cap. If trading is interrupted, abbreviated, or delayed, the official closing price used for resolution could come from a later session, which may matter if the first-day close is unusual.
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24h Vol
$530.7K
Liquidity
$251.1K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The main source of truth is the primary exchange’s official listing page, and the market rules say another reliable source can be used only if the relevant figure is not shown there. Before June 30, 2026, readers should verify whether Discord has actually completed an IPO, whether the first official closing price has been published, and how many shares outstanding are being used for the market-cap calculation. One important ambiguity to watch is the bracket rule: if the final value sits exactly on the boundary between two ranges, the market resolves to the higher bracket.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Discord’s market cap be between $25B and $30B at market close on IPO day?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $227.2 in 24h volume, and $4.1K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
0.3%
No
99.8%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve based on Discord's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Discord’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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