
--
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
24h Vol
$538.5K
Liquidity
$259.5K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Discord’s market cap be $30B or greater at market close on IPO day?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $266.7 in 24h volume, and $4.9K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$266.7
Liquidity
$4.9K
This market is asking whether Discord will debut on the public market with a valuation of at least $30 billion at the close of its first trading day. It is a straightforward way to track expectations around one of the best-known consumer internet companies and its eventual IPO pricing, listing, and opening-day trading performance.
The question is tied to Discord’s first day of trading on a public exchange, if and when that IPO happens. The market resolves “Yes” only if Discord’s market capitalization, calculated from the official closing share price on that first trading day, is $30 billion or higher; otherwise it resolves “No.” If Discord does not go public by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to “No IPO by June 30, 2026,” so the timing of the listing matters as much as the pricing outcome.
Discord is widely known as a major communications platform, so an IPO would give the market a concrete public valuation to compare against private-market expectations. The uncertainty here is not just whether the company lists, but whether demand on the first trading day pushes the closing valuation above the $30 billion threshold. Readers are effectively watching disagreement over how the market will value Discord once its shares begin trading publicly.
The biggest price-moving events are official IPO signals: a filed prospectus, an updated share count, a pricing range, the final offer price, and the opening and closing prints on the first trading day. Any change in the expected number of outstanding shares, the size of the offering, or the exchange listing could affect whether the closing market cap lands above or below $30 billion. If the IPO is delayed past the June 30, 2026 deadline, that would force a “No IPO” resolution under the market rules.
The current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets

--
24h Vol
$538.5K
Liquidity
$259.5K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketThe key source of truth is the primary exchange’s official listing page, with another reliable source used only if the relevant figure is not displayed there. Readers should verify the official first-day closing price, the number of shares outstanding used for the calculation, and whether any abbreviated session or trading interruption changes which close counts for resolution. The rule also says that if the value lands exactly between two brackets, the higher bracket wins, so borderline outcomes should be read carefully against the stated threshold and deadline.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Discord’s market cap be $30B or greater at market close on IPO day?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $266.7 in 24h volume, and $4.9K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
0.4%
No
99.7%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve based on Discord's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Discord’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

+12.8%
24h Vol
$168.2K
Liquidity
$175.4K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View market
-1%
24h Vol
$77.6K
Liquidity
$60.8K
Spread
1%
7/1/2026
View market
--
24h Vol
$33.2K
Liquidity
$128.4K
Spread
0%
12/31/2026
View market
-0.2%
24h Vol
$18.9K
Liquidity
$26.3K
Spread
1%
Live
View market
-0.3%
24h Vol
$23K
Liquidity
$29K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View market