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Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
24h Vol
$513.8K
Liquidity
$250.6K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Discord’s market cap be less than $15B at market close on IPO day?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $245.2 in 24h volume, and $5.2K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$245.2
Liquidity
$5.2K
This market asks whether Discord’s public-market value will finish its first trading day below $15 billion. It is tied to one specific moment: the closing price on Discord’s IPO day, not later trading days or an intraday dip. Because the answer depends on the company’s listing, share count, and end-of-day price, it is a useful market to watch around any actual IPO filing and debut timetable.
Discord is the communications platform best known for group chat, voice channels, and online communities, and the market is focused on its first day as a publicly traded company. The resolution uses Discord’s market capitalization at the official closing price on that first trading day, calculated from the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price. If Discord does not complete an IPO by June 30, 2026, the market resolves to the separate outcome, “No IPO by June 30, 2026.”
The uncertainty comes from two moving parts: whether Discord lists by the deadline, and if it does, what investors are willing to pay for the stock at the close. Even a widely anticipated IPO can price above or below expectations depending on the offering size, share structure, and trading-day sentiment. The market is effectively pricing disagreement over whether Discord’s debut will clear the $15 billion threshold or come in under it.
The biggest market-moving developments would be official IPO-related milestones such as a filed registration statement, an amended prospectus, confirmation of pricing, and the announced number of shares outstanding. On debut day, the closing stock price matters directly because the market cap is based on that official close, so a strong or weak first-session finish can change the result quickly. Any delay, withdrawal, or failure to list before the deadline would push the market toward the no-IPO outcome instead.
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24h Vol
$513.8K
Liquidity
$250.6K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should watch for Discord’s primary exchange listing page and the official closing price on the first trading day, since the market explicitly says resolution will use that source of truth. If the exchange does not display the relevant figure, the rules allow another reliable source, so the exact published close is the key item to verify. It is also important to confirm whether an IPO happens by June 30, 2026, because that deadline overrides everything else if no listing occurs.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Discord’s market cap be less than $15B at market close on IPO day?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $245.2 in 24h volume, and $5.2K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
0.5%
No
99.6%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve based on Discord's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Discord’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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