economy
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
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Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$2.1M
Liquidity
$1.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Donald Trump dance on June 12, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 43%, $6.4 in 24h volume, and $993.3 in liquidity.
Probability
43%
24h Volume
$6.4
Liquidity
$993.3
This market asks whether Donald Trump will be seen dancing on June 12, 2026, based on video footage from that calendar day. Because the contract is tied to a very specific behavior and a single date, the key question is not whether he appears in public, but whether there is qualifying footage that clearly shows dancing under the market’s definition. The market is worth watching because the resolution depends on a narrow interpretation of the video evidence, not on broader political events.
The event is simple in form: if Donald Trump dances at any point between 12:00 AM ET and 11:59 PM ET on June 12, 2026, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise it resolves to No. The rules define dancing as deliberate, rhythmic body movement that is matched to music or a beat, including swaying, stepping, or coordinated hand or body motions, while casual gesturing or clapping does not count. The market also says AI-generated content, deepfakes, altered footage, or videos posted later from outside the time window will not qualify, and the final decision will be made from video footage.
This market has uncertainty because the outcome depends on a specific, observable action from one person on one day, and there may be no universally accepted line between ordinary movement and dancing. Donald Trump is a highly visible political figure, so any public appearance could create debate about whether his movements meet the contract’s standard. The disagreement the market is pricing is essentially whether qualifying footage will appear and whether that footage will be unambiguous enough to resolve the contract.
The price can move if credible video from June 12 shows Trump in a setting with music or a beat and clear rhythmic movement that fits the written definition. It can also move if there are public appearances, rallies, events, or social-media clips that appear to show dancing, or if there is reason to believe no such footage will surface by the deadline. Because the rules exclude AI-generated and out-of-window clips, any dispute over when a video was filmed or whether it was edited can matter just as much as the movement itself.
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24h Vol
$2.1M
Liquidity
$1.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 43% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should watch for the exact resolution standard: video footage from June 12, 2026, in Eastern Time, and only footage that shows deliberate rhythmic movement that meets the contract’s definition. The key ambiguity risks are edited clips, later-posted videos filmed earlier, or footage where the movement could be described as casual gesturing rather than dancing. The market ends on July 1, 2026, but the relevant question is what happened during that one-day window, so the source, timestamp, and authenticity of any video are the most important details to verify.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Donald Trump dance on June 12, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 43%, $6.4 in 24h volume, and $993.3 in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
42.5%
No
57.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jul 1, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump dances between 12:00 AM ET and 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Dancing" is defined as deliberate, rhythmic body movement typically matched music or a beat, such as swaying, stepping, or coordinated hand or body motions. Casual gesturing, clapping, or incidental body movement will not qualify. Dancing without the presence of music or a beat will qualify. AI-generated content, deepfakes, or altered footage will not be considered. Videos posted on his social media, which were filmed outside this market's time frame, will not qualify. This market will resolve based on video footage.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 43%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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