economy
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
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Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.2M
Liquidity
$2.1M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Donald Trump dance on June 26, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 42%, and $1K in liquidity.
Probability
42%
24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$1K
This market asks a narrow but very visible question: whether Donald Trump will be shown dancing on June 26, 2026. Because the resolution depends on video evidence and a strict definition of dancing, the page is less about political outcomes and more about whether a specific public appearance or clip meets the rules.
The event is tied to Donald Trump, the former U.S. president and a central figure in American politics, on a single calendar date: June 26, 2026. The market resolves Yes only if there is qualifying video footage showing him dancing sometime between 12:00 AM ET and 11:59 PM ET that day; otherwise it resolves No. The rules say dancing must be deliberate, rhythmic movement such as swaying, stepping, or coordinated hand or body motions, while casual gesturing, clapping, or incidental movement does not count.
The uncertainty here is not about policy or election results, but about whether an identifiable public figure will engage in a very specific kind of behavior on a specific day. That makes the market sensitive to appearances at rallies, events, or other public settings where music or a beat could be present, while also leaving room for disagreement over what counts as dancing under the market’s definition. The rules also remove easy shortcuts: altered footage, AI-generated clips, and videos posted later of something filmed outside the time window do not count.
Price can move if Trump appears at a public event, especially one with music, a celebratory atmosphere, or informal stage movement that might qualify under the market’s definition. It can also move if there is clear video evidence from June 26 itself, because the resolution is based on footage rather than secondhand claims. On the other side, if the day passes without any qualifying video, the market should drift toward No as the deadline gets closer and then expires.
Related markets
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24h Vol
$1.2M
Liquidity
$2.1M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 42% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should check the exact time window, which is June 26, 2026 from 12:00 AM ET to 11:59 PM ET, and remember that the market resolves from video footage only. The most important ambiguity is whether a clip shows deliberate rhythmic movement rather than ordinary gesturing, so the wording of the rules matters more than the casual description of the event. Also note that videos uploaded to social media only count if they were actually filmed during the market’s time frame, and the market ends after the specified date with resolution expected shortly afterward.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Donald Trump dance on June 26, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 42%, and $1K in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
42%
No
58%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jul 1, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump dances between 12:00 AM ET and 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Dancing" is defined as deliberate, rhythmic body movement typically matched music or a beat, such as swaying, stepping, or coordinated hand or body motions. Casual gesturing, clapping, or incidental body movement will not qualify. Dancing without the presence of music or a beat will qualify. AI-generated content, deepfakes, or altered footage will not be considered. Videos posted on his social media, which were filmed outside this market's time frame, will not qualify. This market will resolve based on video footage.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 42%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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