economy
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Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$2.1M
Liquidity
$1.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Donald Trump dance on June 27, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 49%, and $1K in liquidity.
Probability
49%
24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$1K
This market asks a very specific question about Donald Trump on June 27, 2026: will there be qualifying video evidence that he danced at any point during that calendar day? Because the resolution depends on footage and a tight definition of “dancing,” the exact interpretation of what counts matters as much as the event itself.
The event is limited to June 27, 2026, from 12:00 AM ET through 11:59 PM ET, and it resolves to Yes only if Donald Trump is shown dancing during that window. The market rules define dancing as deliberate, rhythmic body movement matched to music or a beat, including swaying, stepping, or coordinated hand or body motions; casual gestures, clapping, or incidental movement do not count. The market also says AI-generated content, deepfakes, altered footage, and videos posted later that were filmed outside the window will not qualify, and resolution will be based on video footage.
This market is about an unusual, highly observable public-behavior question involving a former U.S. president whose appearances are often documented on video. The uncertainty is not about politics in the abstract, but about whether a clip meeting the market’s specific standard will exist for that one date. Readers are effectively weighing the chance of a publicly visible moment that is clear enough to satisfy the rule set.
Price can move if there is a public appearance, rally, celebration, event, or informal setting on June 27 where Trump is seen moving to music or a beat in a way that fits the definition. A short clip, even without music playing on screen, could matter if the movement is clearly rhythmic and deliberate; by contrast, ordinary gestures or brief bouncing that do not look like dancing would not. Any dispute over whether footage is authentic, whether it was actually filmed on June 27, or whether the movement is just joking or gesturing could also affect how traders interpret the market.
Related markets
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24h Vol
$2.1M
Liquidity
$1.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 49% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key thing to verify is the timestamp and authenticity of any video that appears to show Trump dancing on June 27, 2026. Because the rules exclude AI-generated, edited, or out-of-window clips, the source footage and when it was filmed are central to resolution. The market ends on July 1, 2026 at 03:59:00 UTC, so readers should look for qualifying footage from the correct date before then and not rely on reposts or later uploads without clear timing.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Donald Trump dance on June 27, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 49%, and $1K in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
49%
No
51%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jul 1, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump dances between 12:00 AM ET and 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Dancing" is defined as deliberate, rhythmic body movement typically matched music or a beat, such as swaying, stepping, or coordinated hand or body motions. Casual gesturing, clapping, or incidental body movement will not qualify. Dancing without the presence of music or a beat will qualify. AI-generated content, deepfakes, or altered footage will not be considered. Videos posted on his social media, which were filmed outside this market's time frame, will not qualify. This market will resolve based on video footage.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 49%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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