economy
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
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Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$2.1M
Liquidity
$1.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Donald Trump dance on June 28, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 45%, and $1K in liquidity.
Probability
45%
24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$1K
This market asks a very specific question about Donald Trump’s public behavior on June 28, 2026: will he be shown dancing at any point during that calendar day, under the market’s own definition? Because the outcome depends on video evidence and a narrow time window, the key issue is not politics in the abstract but whether there is qualifying footage on that date. The market is worth watching because the rules are unusually detailed, especially about what counts as dancing and what kinds of video will be ignored.
The event is tied to Donald Trump and the date June 28, 2026, with resolution based on whether he dances between 12:00 AM ET and 11:59 PM ET that day. The market’s definition of dancing is broad enough to include deliberate rhythmic movement such as swaying, stepping, or coordinated hand and body motions, and it even says dancing without music or a beat still counts. By contrast, casual gesturing, clapping, or incidental movement does not qualify, and the market resolves only from video footage.
This market is uncertain because public appearances, campaign-style events, or informal moments can produce footage that may or may not meet the definition, and the rule leaves some room for interpretation in borderline cases. People following the market may care because Trump is a highly visible political figure whose public movements are often filmed and shared, but only the exact footage and timing matter here. The disagreement being priced is whether any qualifying video will surface for that date under the market’s strict evidence rules.
A clear video clip from June 28, 2026 showing Trump making deliberate rhythmic movements would push the market toward Yes, especially if the footage is easy to verify and clearly within the time window. The price could also move if there is strong public documentation of a live event, appearance, or celebration where dancing would be plausible, even before a clip is confirmed. On the other hand, if the day passes with only speeches, hand motions, or non-rhythmic movement, the market would tend toward No, and any clips posted later would matter only if they were filmed on the correct date.
Related markets
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24h Vol
$2.1M
Liquidity
$1.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 45% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The most important thing to verify is the actual source video and the time it was filmed, since the rules exclude AI-generated content, deepfakes, altered footage, and videos posted on social media if they were recorded outside the market window. Readers should check whether any footage shows deliberate rhythmic movement and whether it falls on June 28, 2026 in Eastern Time. The market ends July 1, 2026 at 03:59:00 UTC, but the resolution question is entirely about the June 28 calendar day and the market’s video-based evidence standard.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Donald Trump dance on June 28, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 45%, and $1K in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
44.5%
No
55.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jul 1, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump dances between 12:00 AM ET and 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Dancing" is defined as deliberate, rhythmic body movement typically matched music or a beat, such as swaying, stepping, or coordinated hand or body motions. Casual gesturing, clapping, or incidental body movement will not qualify. Dancing without the presence of music or a beat will qualify. AI-generated content, deepfakes, or altered footage will not be considered. Videos posted on his social media, which were filmed outside this market's time frame, will not qualify. This market will resolve based on video footage.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 45%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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