economy
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
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Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$2.1M
Liquidity
$1.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Donald Trump dance on June 29, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 44%, and $1K in liquidity.
Probability
44%
24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$1K
This market asks whether Donald Trump will be seen dancing on June 29, 2026. Because the resolution depends on video evidence from that specific day, the key question is not whether he is at an event, but whether his movements meet the market’s definition of dancing. That makes the wording and the source of any footage especially important.
The market resolves Yes if Donald Trump performs deliberate, rhythmic body movement on June 29, 2026, between 12:00 AM ET and 11:59 PM ET. The description says dancing can include swaying, stepping, or coordinated hand or body motions, and it can count even without music or a beat present. Casual gesturing, clapping, or ordinary movement does not qualify, and the market is tied specifically to video footage from that day.
Donald Trump is a highly visible political figure, so any public appearance, rally, ceremony, or social event on a given date can create uncertainty about how he behaves on camera. The disagreement here is not about politics alone, but about a very specific on-screen action that may or may not happen during ordinary public appearances. The market is effectively pricing whether viewers will be able to point to qualifying footage from that date.
Price can move if there is a scheduled Trump appearance on June 29, 2026 that looks likely to include music, dancing, or audience participation. Clear video showing deliberate rhythmic movement would push the market toward Yes, while footage showing only waving, hand motions, or other non-dance behavior would support No. The rules also make it important that any clip is actually recorded on June 29, since older videos posted later do not count.
The current market price implies roughly a 44% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
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24h Vol
$2.1M
Liquidity
$1.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketBefore resolution, readers should check the exact date and time on any footage and confirm that it was filmed on June 29, 2026 in Eastern Time. The market explicitly excludes AI-generated content, deepfakes, altered footage, and videos posted on social media if they were filmed outside the market’s time window. The source of truth is the video evidence itself, so the main ambiguity risk is whether a clip shows deliberate rhythmic movement closely enough to meet the definition of dancing.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Donald Trump dance on June 29, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 44%, and $1K in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
43.5%
No
56.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jul 1, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump dances between 12:00 AM ET and 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Dancing" is defined as deliberate, rhythmic body movement typically matched music or a beat, such as swaying, stepping, or coordinated hand or body motions. Casual gesturing, clapping, or incidental body movement will not qualify. Dancing without the presence of music or a beat will qualify. AI-generated content, deepfakes, or altered footage will not be considered. Videos posted on his social media, which were filmed outside this market's time frame, will not qualify. This market will resolve based on video footage.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 44%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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