economy
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
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Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.2M
Liquidity
$2.1M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Donald Trump dance on June 30, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 46%, and $1K in liquidity.
Probability
46%
24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$1K
This market asks a very specific question about Donald Trump: will there be qualifying video evidence that he dances on June 30, 2026? Because the resolution depends on a narrow definition of “dancing” and on footage from that calendar day, the market is less about a general impression and more about whether a clear video clip appears.
The event is tied to June 30, 2026, with the market resolving to Yes only if Donald Trump is shown dancing between 12:00 AM ET and 11:59 PM ET on that date. The rules define dancing as deliberate, rhythmic body movement matched to music or a beat, including swaying, stepping, or coordinated hand or body motions; ordinary gesturing, clapping, or incidental movement does not count. The market resolves from video footage, and clips posted to social media will not qualify if they were filmed outside the June 30 time window.
This market is built around a simple but unusually precise factual question: does a public video ever capture Trump dancing on that specific day? The uncertainty comes from both the event itself and the resolution standard, since the footage has to satisfy the market’s own definition rather than a casual viewer’s interpretation. People watching this market are effectively pricing disagreement over whether a qualifying clip will exist and be available by resolution.
The biggest price moves would likely come from any new video that appears to show Trump dancing in a way that fits the market definition and can be tied to June 30, 2026. Conversely, if the day passes without any qualifying footage, or if only borderline clips surface—such as simple waving, clapping, or walking to music—that would support the No side under the rules. Because altered footage, AI-generated content, and reposted social media videos filmed outside the time window are excluded, credibility and timestamping matter as much as the motion shown on camera.
Related markets
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24h Vol
$1.2M
Liquidity
$2.1M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 46% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before this market resolves, readers should pay close attention to the exact wording: the source of truth is video footage, not commentary, screenshots, or reposts without clear filming time. The deadline is the end of June 30, 2026 in Eastern Time, and the market closes on July 1, 2026 at 03:59 UTC. The main ambiguity risk is whether a clip clearly meets the definition of dancing and whether there is enough evidence that it was actually filmed during the stated date rather than shared later.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Donald Trump dance on June 30, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 46%, and $1K in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
45.5%
No
54.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jul 1, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump dances between 12:00 AM ET and 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Dancing" is defined as deliberate, rhythmic body movement typically matched music or a beat, such as swaying, stepping, or coordinated hand or body motions. Casual gesturing, clapping, or incidental body movement will not qualify. Dancing without the presence of music or a beat will qualify. AI-generated content, deepfakes, or altered footage will not be considered. Videos posted on his social media, which were filmed outside this market's time frame, will not qualify. This market will resolve based on video footage.
Probability signal
The market is priced near the middle, which usually means traders are still weighing competing outcomes.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 46%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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