economy
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
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Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$2.1M
Liquidity
$1.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Donald Trump dance on June 7, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 28%, $5.3 in 24h volume, and $130.3 in liquidity.
Probability
28%
24h Volume
$5.3
Liquidity
$130.3
This market asks whether Donald Trump will be captured on video dancing on June 7, 2026. The question is unusually specific because the resolution depends on what counts as dancing, what footage is valid, and whether the video shows the movement occurring on that exact date.
The event is about Donald Trump, the former U.S. president and current political figure named in the title, and whether he dances at any point during June 7, 2026, from 12:00 AM ET through 11:59 PM ET. The market’s rule set defines dancing as deliberate, rhythmic body movement matched to music or a beat, including swaying, stepping, or coordinated motions; casual gesturing, clapping, or incidental movement does not count. It resolves only from video footage, and AI-generated content, deepfakes, altered clips, or social-media videos filmed outside the time window will not qualify.
This market is narrower than a general “will Trump dance” question because it hinges on a single calendar day and on video evidence rather than rumors or later reposts. Readers may care because Trump is a high-profile political figure whose public appearances are often documented closely, and even small changes in how he behaves in public can become widely discussed. The disagreement the market is pricing is really about whether there will be qualifying footage on that date, not about long-term political odds or campaign outcomes.
The price would move if there is a public event, rally, celebration, or appearance on June 7 where footage clearly shows Trump moving to music or a beat in a way that fits the market definition. It could also move if there is credible video from that day that is widely accepted as authentic and shows a qualifying dance, or if on the other hand the day passes without any such footage. Because the rules exclude older clips, reposts, and manipulated media, the market may react sharply to questions of authenticity and timing even when the footage looks convincing.
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24h Vol
$2.1M
Liquidity
$1.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 28% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before this market resolves, the key things to verify are the date visible in the footage, whether the video is authentic, and whether the movement meets the market’s definition of dancing. The source of truth is video footage from June 7, 2026, with the 12:00 AM ET to 11:59 PM ET window controlling the outcome; later-uploaded clips only count if they clearly show the movement happened within that period. The main ambiguity risk is borderline body movement—something that looks celebratory or rhythmic but may not rise to the level of dancing under the market rules.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Donald Trump dance on June 7, 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 28%, $5.3 in 24h volume, and $130.3 in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
28.5%
No
71.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jul 1, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump dances between 12:00 AM ET and 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Dancing" is defined as deliberate, rhythmic body movement typically matched music or a beat, such as swaying, stepping, or coordinated hand or body motions. Casual gesturing, clapping, or incidental body movement will not qualify. Dancing without the presence of music or a beat will qualify. AI-generated content, deepfakes, or altered footage will not be considered. Videos posted on his social media, which were filmed outside this market's time frame, will not qualify. This market will resolve based on video footage.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
The 24h move is notable, so recent news or market activity may have changed trader expectations.
The current displayed probability is 28%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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