culture
😬 Cooling⚡ Tight
11%
-45%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?
24h Vol
$258.9K
Liquidity
$11.9K
Spread
1%
6/6/2026
View marketCulture
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will "Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?. The market currently shows a live probability of 4%, $65.3 in 24h volume, and $650.5 in liquidity.
Probability
4%
24h Volume
$65.3
Liquidity
$650.5
This market asks whether Olivia Rodrigo’s "Drop Dead" will be the most-streamed song on Spotify globally for the week labeled June 12. It is a straightforward check on weekly listening demand, using Spotify’s own charts rather than radio play, sales, or social buzz. Because the resolution is tied to a specific chart week and an official source, the key question is not just popularity, but whether the song finishes first for that exact reporting period.
The market resolves to "Yes" if "Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo" is the #1 song globally on Spotify for the week labeled June 12. Spotify’s weekly chart is updated on Fridays and reflects streams from the prior Friday through Thursday, so the relevant listening window is fixed by Spotify’s chart calendar. If Spotify has not released the top song for that week by June 13, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market defaults to "Other," which matters because the deadline is built into the rules.
A song can be widely discussed without actually finishing first on Spotify, so there is real uncertainty around whether Olivia Rodrigo will hold the top spot for the full chart week. The market is essentially pricing the chance that one track outperforms every other song worldwide over a specific seven-day span, which depends on sustained streaming volume rather than a single burst of attention. For a pop release, that can hinge on how durable the audience is across the chart week and whether competing releases or holdover hits stay ahead.
Anything that changes expected Spotify streams for that week can move this market, especially official release timing, playlist placement, and whether the song has a strong first full week of listening. If Spotify’s charts update and "Drop Dead" appears near the top—or far below it—that would quickly reshape expectations. Because the market resolves on the official global weekly chart, any sign that another track is dominating the same reporting window is especially important.
Related markets
-45%
24h Vol
$258.9K
Liquidity
$11.9K
Spread
1%
6/6/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 4% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The source of truth is Spotify’s official weekly "Charts" listing on open.spotify.com, and the relevant item is the global top song for the week labeled June 12. Readers should verify both the exact song title and the chart week, since the market is not about being popular in general but about finishing #1 in that specific weekly ranking. The built-in fallback to "Other" after June 13, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET also means a delayed Spotify update could matter if the chart is not published on time.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will "Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?. The market currently shows a live probability of 4%, $65.3 in 24h volume, and $650.5 in liquidity.
Track live culture prediction markets focused on entertainment, celebrity events, streaming trends, viral topics, movies, music, and global pop culture developments.
Yes
3.6%
No
96.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 13, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
Spotify curates a playlist of the most streamed songs globally and updates it on Fridays to reflect streaming data for the previous week, beginning on the preceding Friday and ending on Thursday. This market will resolve according to the most-streamed song globally on Spotify for the week labeled June 12. If Spotify does not release its top song for the week labeled June 12 by June 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will default to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Spotify. The weekly top songs chart can be found on open.spotify.com under the "Charts" heading.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 4%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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