culture
😬 Cooling⚡ Tight
10%
-49%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?
24h Vol
$271.9K
Liquidity
$9.1K
Spread
1%
6/6/2026
View marketCulture
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will "Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?. The market currently shows a live probability of 8%, $464.1 in 24h volume, and $425.9 in liquidity.
Probability
8%
24h Volume
$464.1
Liquidity
$425.9
This market asks whether "Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo" will finish as the most-streamed song on Spotify in the U.S. for the chart week labeled June 12. It is a narrow, timing-sensitive music chart question, so the main thing to watch is whether that specific track can outrun every other song on Spotify’s U.S. charts during the measured week.
The outcome is tied to Spotify’s weekly U.S. top-songs chart for the week labeled June 12, with the usual Spotify chart window running from Friday through Thursday. The question is not whether the song is popular in general, but whether "Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo" is the single most-streamed song in the United States on Spotify for that chart week. If Spotify has not published the relevant chart by June 13, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other."
This market is about a specific song and a specific chart week, which creates uncertainty because streaming totals can change quickly from one release cycle to the next. Olivia Rodrigo is a major pop artist, so a song attached to her name can draw strong listener interest, but the market is really about whether this title can dominate all other U.S. Spotify tracks over the full week rather than just trend briefly. The disagreement here is over how much streaming lift the song will get relative to competing releases and holdover hits.
The biggest price moves would come from the song’s weekly streaming performance on Spotify’s U.S. chart as the Friday-to-Thursday window plays out. A strong release-day spike, sustained playlist support, or unusually durable listener demand would improve its chances of reaching #1, while heavy competition from another viral track, a major album drop, or a late-week surge by a rival song would work against it. Any official Spotify chart update that shows the song rising or falling near the top of the U.S. rankings would also be a direct signal.
Related markets
-49%
24h Vol
$271.9K
Liquidity
$9.1K
Spread
1%
6/6/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 8% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The source of truth is Spotify’s official "Charts" page, specifically the weekly top songs – USA chart for the week labeled June 12. Readers should verify the exact chart label, the song title as Spotify displays it, and whether the chart has been published before the June 13, 2026 11:59 PM ET deadline. The main ambiguity risk is that the market resolves only from the official Spotify chart, so outside reporting, third-party trackers, or global charts do not control the outcome.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will "Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?. The market currently shows a live probability of 8%, $464.1 in 24h volume, and $425.9 in liquidity.
Track live culture prediction markets focused on entertainment, celebrity events, streaming trends, viral topics, movies, music, and global pop culture developments.
Yes
8%
No
92%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 13, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
Spotify curates a playlist of the most streamed songs globally and updates it on Fridays to reflect streaming data for the previous week, beginning on the preceding Friday and ending on Thursday. This market will resolve according to the most-streamed song in the U.S. on Spotify for the week labeled June 12. If Spotify does not release its top song for the week labeled June 12 by June 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will default to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Spotify. The weekly top songs - USA chart can be found on open.spotify.com under the "Charts" heading.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 8%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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