culture
😬 Cooling⚡ Tight
10%
-49%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?
24h Vol
$271.9K
Liquidity
$9.1K
Spread
1%
6/6/2026
View marketCulture
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will "Earrings - Malcolm Todd" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $465.7 in 24h volume, and $718.6 in liquidity.
Probability
1%
24h Volume
$465.7
Liquidity
$718.6
This market asks whether "Earrings" by Malcolm Todd will finish as the No. 1 song on Spotify’s U.S. chart for the week labeled June 12. It is a straightforward question about streaming performance over a single chart week, with the outcome tied to Spotify’s official chart posting rather than outside rankings or commentary.
The market resolves to the most-streamed song in the U.S. on Spotify for the week labeled June 12, using Spotify’s own weekly Top Songs - USA chart under its Charts section. In practical terms, readers should watch whether "Earrings" by Malcolm Todd stays ahead of every other track streamed in the United States during that chart window. If Spotify has not published the relevant chart by June 13, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market defaults to "Other."
Song charts can shift quickly because streaming totals are driven by listener behavior across a short time frame, new releases, viral moments, playlist placement, and repeat listening. Malcolm Todd’s "Earrings" is being compared against every other song on Spotify in the U.S., so the uncertainty is not whether the track exists, but whether it can outstream all competing songs for that specific week. The market is pricing disagreement about whether it can hold the top spot on Spotify’s official U.S. chart.
Any sign that "Earrings" is gaining or losing momentum in U.S. streaming can move the market, especially if the song appears to be climbing on Spotify’s own charts. Playlist exposure, social media virality, a related release, or a competing song surging in streams could change the outlook for the June 12 chart week. Because the resolution depends on Spotify’s official ranking, the most relevant developments are changes in chart position and the eventual weekly chart post from Spotify.
The current market price implies roughly a 1% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
-49%
24h Vol
$271.9K
Liquidity
$9.1K
Spread
1%
6/6/2026
View marketThe key source of truth is Spotify’s official "Top Songs - USA" chart under the Charts heading, and the market resolves only on that chart for the week labeled June 12. Readers should verify both the song title and the chart week label, since the relevant period runs from the preceding Friday through Thursday as described. The main ambiguity risk is timing: if Spotify delays the weekly post past the June 13, 2026 deadline, the market goes to "Other" regardless of what the chart would otherwise have shown.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will "Earrings - Malcolm Todd" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $465.7 in 24h volume, and $718.6 in liquidity.
Track live culture prediction markets focused on entertainment, celebrity events, streaming trends, viral topics, movies, music, and global pop culture developments.
Yes
0.5%
No
99.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 13, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
Spotify curates a playlist of the most streamed songs globally and updates it on Fridays to reflect streaming data for the previous week, beginning on the preceding Friday and ending on Thursday. This market will resolve according to the most-streamed song in the U.S. on Spotify for the week labeled June 12. If Spotify does not release its top song for the week labeled June 12 by June 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will default to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Spotify. The weekly top songs - USA chart can be found on open.spotify.com under the "Charts" heading.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 1%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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