
-46%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?
24h Vol
$267.6K
Liquidity
$10.1K
Spread
1%
6/6/2026
View marketCulture
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $2.5K in 24h volume, and $67.7K in liquidity.
Probability
1%
24h Volume
$2.5K
Liquidity
$67.7K
This market asks whether Edmundo González will officially be Venezuela’s head of state at the end of 2026. The key issue is not who is politically influential or widely viewed as a leader, but who the Venezuelan government, or failing that the UN protocol listing, recognizes as holding the top state office on the resolution date.
Edmundo González is the named figure in the title, and the market is really about whether he will formally hold the office of head of state of Venezuela by Dec. 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. The rules say the outcome depends on official status: appointed, confirmed if needed, and sworn in, or otherwise identified by official government information as head of state. If the government does not clearly state it, the market falls back to the UN’s head-of-state listing; if no one holds the office, the result is "No Head of State."
This market is about the gap between political recognition, constitutional authority, and formal state control in Venezuela. González is a major opposition-linked public figure, so readers may wonder whether a future transition, appointment, or recognition could put him in the top state role by the end of 2026. The uncertainty comes from the fact that a person can be prominent or claim legitimacy without actually meeting the market’s formal resolution standard.
Statements from the Venezuelan government, changes in who is officially sworn in, or any formal announcement naming a head of state would be the biggest price movers. So would changes in international recognition only if they lead to a clear official listing under the market’s fallback rules, especially the UN protocol source. Any constitutional transition, resignation, succession dispute, or new interim authority could also matter if it changes who is formally recorded as holding the office.
Related markets

-46%
24h Vol
$267.6K
Liquidity
$10.1K
Spread
1%
6/6/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 1% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before this market resolves, readers should check the exact official record of who is head of state on Dec. 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET, not just campaign claims or media descriptions. The most important sources under the rules are Venezuelan official government information and, if that is unclear, the UN head-of-state listing linked in the contract. Also watch for ambiguity around multiple claimants, temporary appointments, or an effective date that lands after the deadline, because those would not count here.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $2.5K in 24h volume, and $67.7K in liquidity.
Track live culture prediction markets focused on entertainment, celebrity events, streaming trends, viral topics, movies, music, and global pop culture developments.
Yes
0.8%
No
99.2%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Dec 31, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 1%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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