economy
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
-0.1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $7K in 24h volume, and $1M in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$7K
Liquidity
$1M
This market asks whether Eduardo Bolsonaro will be the winner of Brazil’s 2026 presidential election. It is worth watching because the outcome depends on Brazil’s election rules, whether he is actually a candidate, and whether he can win outright or after a second round.
The event is Brazil’s presidential election scheduled for October 4, 2026, with the possibility of a runoff if no candidate wins in the first round. The market resolves to the listed candidate who wins the election, and it explicitly includes any second round. If the final result is still not known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other."
Eduardo Bolsonaro is a recognizable political figure in Brazil, but whether he will actually win the presidency is a separate question from whether he is politically prominent. Brazilian presidential contests can be uncertain because they depend on candidate eligibility, coalition-building, first-round performance, and runoff dynamics. This market is pricing the chance that he ends up as the official winner under the election result rules, not just whether he is in the race.
Price can move if Eduardo Bolsonaro formally enters the race, is excluded, or faces eligibility questions that affect his path to the ballot. It can also move with official campaign announcements, party nominations, endorsements, major shifts in polling, or developments that make a first-round win or runoff victory look more or less plausible. Any credible reporting about the TSE’s election timetable, candidacy filings, or the likely two-round field could matter because the market resolves to the final official winner.
The current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
-0.1%
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketReaders should watch the official election calendar, candidate registration, and whether the contest goes to a second round, since the market includes runoff results. The stated source of truth is the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (TSE) if there is any ambiguity, so official results matter more than commentary or early projections. The June 30, 2027 deadline also matters: if the election result is still unresolved by then, this market does not stay open indefinitely and will resolve to "Other."
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $7K in 24h volume, and $1M in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
0.2%
No
99.9%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Oct 4, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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