economy
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
-0.1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?. The market currently shows a live probability of 28%, $13.6K in 24h volume, and $200.6K in liquidity.
Probability
28%
24h Volume
$13.6K
Liquidity
$200.6K
This market asks whether Flávio Bolsonaro will emerge as the winner of Brazil’s 2026 presidential election. It is tied to a major national contest in a country that uses a two-round system, so the eventual winner may not be known on election night if no candidate clears the first-round threshold.
The question is simple: will Flávio Bolsonaro be the candidate who wins Brazil’s presidential election scheduled for October 4, 2026? The market explicitly includes any second round, which matters because Brazil’s system can require a runoff if no one wins outright in the first vote. If the result is still not known by June 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other."
This market reflects uncertainty around whether Flávio Bolsonaro can turn name recognition into a national victory in a highly competitive presidential race. Brazil’s presidential elections are shaped by coalition-building, regional strength, and runoff dynamics, so even a well-known political family name does not make the outcome obvious. Readers may care because the result would signal the direction of Brazilian politics and the strength of the Bolsonaro political brand.
The price can move if Flávio Bolsonaro formally becomes a candidate, if party alliances consolidate around or away from him, or if other major contenders change the shape of the race. Official polls, endorsements, eligibility or ballot-access questions, and anything affecting whether he reaches or wins a runoff can all matter. Because the market resolves to the election winner as reported through credible coverage and, if needed, the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court, the most important developments are those that clarify the actual field and the official result.
The current market price implies roughly a 28% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
-0.1%
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketBefore resolution, the key things to verify are the official candidate list, whether the election requires a second round, and the final result reported by Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE). The market rules say credible reporting may be used to track the outcome, but if there is any ambiguity, the TSE’s official results control. The deadline is June 30, 2027, which is the fallback cutoff if the election result is still unresolved.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?. The market currently shows a live probability of 28%, $13.6K in 24h volume, and $200.6K in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
28.2%
No
71.8%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Oct 4, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 28%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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