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Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$2.2M
Liquidity
$1.7M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $17.3K in 24h volume, and $78.4K in liquidity.
Probability
1%
24h Volume
$17.3K
Liquidity
$78.4K
This market asks whether Gideon Sa’ar will be the person officially sworn in as Israel’s next prime minister after the country’s next parliamentary election. It matters because Israel’s government is formed through coalition-building in the Knesset, so the winner is not simply the biggest party leader but the individual who ultimately secures enough support to be appointed and sworn in.
The resolution looks to the next individual who is formally appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 legislative election scheduled for October 27, 2026. If Israel holds an early election before then, the market shifts to the person sworn in after that earlier vote. Gideon Sa’ar is a senior Israeli politician, but he only counts here if he is the actual sworn-in prime minister; an interim or caretaker role does not qualify.
There is real uncertainty because Israeli elections often produce fragmented results, and the eventual prime minister depends on coalition negotiations, party alliances, and the president’s government-formation process. Even if Sa’ar remains an influential figure, the market is specifically about whether he becomes the final sworn-in leader, which is a narrower and more demanding outcome than simply serving in government or supporting a coalition. The “Other” outcome also matters because the market stays open until the deadline if no qualifying swearing-in happens.
The biggest price moves would come from changes in coalition arithmetic: whether Sa’ar joins, leads, or is sidelined by a viable governing bloc after the election. Official election timing, party splits, leadership changes, or any announced agreement that materially improves or weakens Sa’ar’s path to the premiership would be especially relevant. Because the rules hinge on a formal swearing-in, developments in the president’s consultations, coalition talks, and the final appointment ceremony are more important than informal endorsements alone.
Related markets
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24h Vol
$2.2M
Liquidity
$1.7M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 1% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Readers should watch the official election date, any early election call, and the formal process by which Israel’s president tasks a lawmaker with forming a government. The key source of truth for resolution is the Government of Israel, with credible reporting used only if the official record is unclear. It is also important to check whether Sa’ar is actually the person appointed and sworn in, since caretaker service, acting roles, or cabinet participation would not satisfy the market rule. If no qualifying prime minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to Other.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $17.3K in 24h volume, and $78.4K in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
0.5%
No
99.5%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Dec 31, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 1%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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