economy
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
0%
-0.1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketPolitics
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $1.5K in 24h volume, and $1.6M in liquidity.
Probability
1%
24h Volume
$1.5K
Liquidity
$1.6M
This market asks whether Greg Abbott will be the Republican Party’s 2028 nominee for U.S. president. Abbott is the governor of Texas, and a presidential nomination would put him at the center of the party’s national convention and primary process. The market is worth watching because the answer depends on an extended sequence of campaign, delegate, and party decisions that can change well before Election Day.
The event question is simple: will Greg Abbott win and accept the 2028 Republican nomination for president of the United States? If he does, the market resolves to Yes; if he does not, it resolves to No. The stated resolution source is a consensus of official Republican Party sources, and the market also says that if the party replaces its nominee before Election Day, that replacement does not change the resolution rule for this contract.
There is real uncertainty around who will emerge as the Republican nominee in 2028 because the field, endorsements, primary rules, and delegate math are not settled this far out. Abbott is a recognizable Republican figure with statewide executive experience, but a presidential nomination is not automatic and depends on whether he runs, gains support, and ultimately secures the party’s formal nomination. Readers following this market are watching a specific leadership question inside the GOP, not just a general election outcome.
The price can move if Abbott signals a presidential run, builds or loses support among Republican officials, or becomes the focus of early primary coverage, endorsements, or fundraising. Changes in the broader Republican field also matter: a stronger rival, a crowded primary, or a party shift toward another contender can all make his nomination less likely. Because the contract resolves on official party sources, any formal nomination, withdrawal, convention action, or accepted replacement candidate would be especially important.
Related markets
-0.1%
24h Vol
$1.4M
Liquidity
$2.3M
Spread
0%
6/17/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 1% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before this market resolves, the key things to verify are whether Abbott has actually won the Republican nomination and accepted it, and whether that result is reflected in official Republican Party sources. The end date shown is 2028-11-07, but the practical resolution will likely depend on the party’s convention and nomination process before then. If the nomination is disputed, changed, or replaced, readers should pay close attention to the exact wording of the market rules and the official party announcement used as the source of truth.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $1.5K in 24h volume, and $1.6M in liquidity.
Track political prediction markets, election probabilities, and real-time political forecasting trends across major global events and government decisions.
Yes
0.9%
No
99.2%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Nov 7, 2028. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 1%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
-4%
24h Vol
$1.6M
Liquidity
$622.2K
Spread
1%
6/15/2026
View market
+1.5%
24h Vol
$1.8M
Liquidity
$554.7K
Spread
0%
11/7/2028
View market
--
24h Vol
$4.3M
Liquidity
$98.1K
Spread
0%
6/7/2026
View market
+0.1%
24h Vol
$244.5K
Liquidity
$620.7K
Spread
0%
10/4/2026
View market
--
24h Vol
$93.7K
Liquidity
$359.8K
Spread
0%
4/30/2027
View market