culture
😬 Cooling⚡ Tight
11%
-45%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?
24h Vol
$258.9K
Liquidity
$11.9K
Spread
1%
6/6/2026
View marketCulture
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will "Hit The Wall - Gracie Abrams" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?. The market currently shows a live probability of 3%, $537 in 24h volume, and $1.4K in liquidity.
Probability
3%
24h Volume
$537
Liquidity
$1.4K
This market asks whether the song "Hit The Wall" by Gracie Abrams will finish the week as the most streamed track in the United States on Spotify. It is tied to Spotify’s weekly U.S. chart for the week labeled June 12, so the key question is which song sits at the top of Spotify’s official chart when that weekly update is published.
The event is about Spotify’s U.S. weekly chart, not a broader music award or sales ranking. The title singles out "Hit The Wall - Gracie Abrams," and the market resolves "Yes" only if that song is the #1 song in the U.S. on Spotify for the week labeled June 12, using Spotify’s official chart under the Charts section. If Spotify does not release the relevant weekly top songs chart by June 13, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market defaults to "Other."
Songs can move quickly up or down Spotify’s weekly rankings based on release timing, playlist placement, fan streaming, and competition from other big tracks. Gracie Abrams is a recognizable pop artist, so the market is really asking whether one specific song can overcome the usual weekly competition and reach the top spot in the U.S. during that chart window.
Any official Spotify chart update for the June 12 week could move this market sharply, especially if "Hit The Wall" appears near the top or is confirmed at #1. A strong release-week boost, viral listening, or a competitor song surging on the same chart would point in opposite directions. Because the resolution depends on Spotify’s own U.S. weekly chart, the exact chart position in that official source matters more than outside commentary or playlists.
The current market price implies roughly a 3% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
-45%
24h Vol
$258.9K
Liquidity
$11.9K
Spread
1%
6/6/2026
View marketBefore the market resolves, readers should check Spotify’s official "Charts" page for the U.S. weekly top songs list for the week labeled June 12. The source of truth is Spotify’s published chart, and the deadline for a fallback to "Other" is June 13, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET if that chart is not released. The main ambiguity risk is a mismatch between the song title shown on the chart and the market’s exact wording, so the final official Spotify listing is what matters.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will "Hit The Wall - Gracie Abrams" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?. The market currently shows a live probability of 3%, $537 in 24h volume, and $1.4K in liquidity.
Track live culture prediction markets focused on entertainment, celebrity events, streaming trends, viral topics, movies, music, and global pop culture developments.
Yes
3.3%
No
96.7%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 13, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
Spotify curates a playlist of the most streamed songs globally and updates it on Fridays to reflect streaming data for the previous week, beginning on the preceding Friday and ending on Thursday. This market will resolve according to the most-streamed song in the U.S. on Spotify for the week labeled June 12. If Spotify does not release its top song for the week labeled June 12 by June 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will default to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Spotify. The weekly top songs - USA chart can be found on open.spotify.com under the "Charts" heading.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is wider, so the headline probability may be less precise than it looks.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 3%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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