
-45%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?
24h Vol
$258.9K
Liquidity
$11.9K
Spread
1%
6/6/2026
View marketCulture
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $124.3 in 24h volume, and $51.6K in liquidity.
Probability
1%
24h Volume
$124.3
Liquidity
$51.6K
This market asks whether Jorge Rodríguez will be the person officially recognized as Venezuela’s head of state at the end of 2026. It is worth watching because the title points to a specific political figure, but the resolution rules depend on formal state recognition, not just public prominence or party leadership.
The question is who, if anyone, officially holds the head-of-state role in Venezuela on Dec. 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. Jorge Rodríguez is a well-known Venezuelan politician, but the market only resolves Yes if he is formally appointed, confirmed if required, and sworn in, or otherwise clearly identified by official government information as the head of state. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who holds the role, the fallback source is the UN listing for head of state; if no individual holds the position, the market resolves to “No Head of State.”
This market is about a real political office whose status can be contested, delayed, or described differently by different authorities. Readers may care because Venezuela’s top office can become ambiguous if there are overlapping claims, leadership changes, or constitutional uncertainty, and the market is pricing whether Jorge Rodríguez ends 2026 in that formal role. The rules also show that the outcome is not about whether he is influential or prominent, but about whether he is officially installed in the specific head-of-state position.
Any official announcement naming Jorge Rodríguez as head of state, a constitutional change that puts him in that office, or a sworn-in ceremony would be the clearest Yes catalyst. Conversely, if another person is formally recognized as head of state, if the role remains with someone else through the deadline, or if the government’s public records and UN listing point to a different officeholder, that would push toward No. Changes in Venezuela’s leadership structure, succession, or official protocol matter here only insofar as they change the formal person named in the role.
Related markets

-45%
24h Vol
$258.9K
Liquidity
$11.9K
Spread
1%
6/6/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 1% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The most important thing to check is the exact official designation in Venezuelan government communications near the deadline, because the market resolves on formal status rather than informal influence. If that is unclear, the UN head-of-state listing becomes the fallback source, so readers should watch for consistency between government statements and the UN protocol page. The deadline is Dec. 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET, and the main ambiguity risk is whether Jorge Rodríguez is merely acting as a senior political figure versus being formally installed as head of state.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 1%, $124.3 in 24h volume, and $51.6K in liquidity.
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Yes
0.7%
No
99.4%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Dec 31, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 1%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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