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Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
24h Vol
$538.5K
Liquidity
$259.5K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketFinance
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Kraken have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $425.2K in 24h volume, and $23.2K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$425.2K
Liquidity
$23.2K
This market is asking whether Kraken, the crypto exchange, will end up with the biggest IPO market capitalization among all companies that go public in 2026. It is worth watching because the outcome depends not just on whether Kraken lists, but on how its first-day valuation compares with every other U.S. IPO completed during the calendar year.
The question is specifically about the company whose first trading day in 2026 gives it the highest market cap, measured in U.S. dollars using the official closing share price and the total number of outstanding shares. For Kraken to win, it would need to complete an IPO between January 1 and December 31, 2026, and then finish that first trading day valued above every other eligible 2026 listing. If there is an exact tie, the market resolves to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Kraken is a recognizable name in a sector where IPO size can swing widely depending on market conditions, investor demand, and how many shares the company leaves outstanding at listing. The market is really pricing a comparison between Kraken’s debut valuation and the other companies that may go public in the same year, which is why a single large offering from another firm could change the outcome even if Kraken lists successfully. The live order book shows this is being treated as a very unlikely result, with the market heavily leaning toward the “No” side.
Any confirmed step toward a Kraken IPO, such as an S-1 filing, pricing announcement, or listing date, could move this market because it makes the question more concrete. The price would also react to the expected size of the offering, the number of shares outstanding, and any indication of how investors are valuing Kraken relative to other 2026 debut candidates. On the other side, a huge IPO from another company, or any delay that pushes Kraken’s debut out of 2026, would reduce the chances of a “Yes” resolution.
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24h Vol
$538.5K
Liquidity
$259.5K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key thing to verify is the primary exchange’s official listing page for each candidate IPO, since resolution is based on that source whenever possible. Readers should check the first trading day close, the reported share count used for market capitalization, and whether any figures need to be converted into U.S. dollars using the Federal Reserve’s H.10 rate or another credible exchange-rate source. Because the market is limited to IPOs completed by December 31, 2026, any company that lists after that deadline is out of scope, and any ambiguity about equal market caps will be broken alphabetically by listed name.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Kraken have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $425.2K in 24h volume, and $23.2K in liquidity.
Track live finance prediction markets focused on interest rates, inflation, stock market events, central bank decisions, and global financial forecasting trends.
Yes
0.1%
No
100%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Dec 31, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026. This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used. A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is relatively deep for a prediction market page, so quoted prices may be more reliable than very thin markets.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.

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