finance
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
6%
-4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?
24h Vol
$185.3K
Liquidity
$146.7K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketTechnology
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Meituan have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $302.3 in 24h volume, and $4.1K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$302.3
Liquidity
$4.1K
This market asks whether Meituan will own the model that sits in third place on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at the June 30, 2026 check. Meituan is best known as a Chinese local services and delivery company, so the market is really about whether its AI efforts can place a model near the top of a widely watched chatbot ranking by that date.
The resolution depends on the company owning the model ranked third on the Chatbot Arena "Text Arena | Overall" leaderboard with Style Control On at 12:00 PM ET on June 30, 2026. The result comes from the "Rank" column on the leaderboard, and if two models are tied, the market uses Arena score and then a company-name tiebreaker to identify who is officially in third place. In plain terms, this is a yes-or-no check on whether Meituan is the company behind the model occupying that exact spot at the deadline.
The uncertainty comes from how quickly leaderboard positions can change as labs update models, users compare outputs, and Arena scores shift. Meituan is not one of the most obvious names in frontier AI to casual readers, so the market is also pricing whether it can sustain a top-tier model against better-known AI developers by late June 2026. The question is specific enough that even small ranking changes on the leaderboard can flip the outcome.
Price can move if Meituan announces a stronger model, a major benchmark result, or a release that appears likely to climb the Chatbot Arena rankings before the June 2026 check. It can also move if rival companies improve their own models and push Meituan down out of third place, or if Meituan’s model is integrated under a different company name than expected. Any change in the leaderboard order, especially near the top three, matters more than broad AI-news headlines.
The current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Related markets
-4%
24h Vol
$185.3K
Liquidity
$146.7K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketReaders should verify the exact leaderboard the market names: the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard, the "Text Arena | Overall" tab, and the version with Style Control On. The key details are the check time on June 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, the rank column, and the tie-breaking rules, because a tie can change which company counts as third even when scores are very close. If the leaderboard is temporarily unavailable, the market says it stays open until it comes back, so the final check may occur later than scheduled if that source is down.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Meituan have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $302.3 in 24h volume, and $4.1K in liquidity.
Track live technology prediction markets focused on AI, major tech events, product launches, innovation forecasts, and emerging industry trends.
Yes
0.2%
No
99.9%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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