finance
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
7%
-3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?
24h Vol
$161.1K
Liquidity
$139.3K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketTechnology
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Meituan have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $3.4K in 24h volume, and $4.4K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$3.4K
Liquidity
$4.4K
This market asks whether Meituan will be the company behind the top-ranked math model on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard at the end of June 2026. It is worth watching because the outcome depends on a very specific benchmark snapshot, not on a vague reputation for AI strength. For a company like Meituan, which is better known for consumer internet and delivery services, a first-place math model would be a notable signal about its AI research standing.
The question is not whether Meituan releases a math model, but whether it owns the model sitting in first place on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard’s "Text Arena | Math" view when the market checks the table on June 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. The market uses the leaderboard’s "Rank" column with style control off, and the winning company is the one whose model is ranked number one at that exact check time. If there is a tie on rank, the market breaks it by Arena score, then by company name order as defined in the rules.
This market exists because leaderboard positions can change as models are updated, new entries appear, or scoring shifts over time. Readers may care because the result reflects a public, apples-to-apples comparison on math performance, which is a narrower and more concrete test than general-purpose chat ability. The disagreement here is not just about whether Meituan has an AI model, but whether it can outrank better-known rivals on a specific public benchmark at the resolution moment.
A new Meituan math model entering the leaderboard, or an existing one improving enough to take first place, would be the most direct way to change the market’s outlook. The same is true for competitors such as Google, xAI, OpenAI, or other companies that may appear near the top if their math models improve or are re-ranked. Changes in leaderboard methodology, leaderboard availability at the check time, or a tie that is decided by score or company-name ordering could also matter because the rules resolve very precisely.
Related markets
-3%
24h Vol
$161.1K
Liquidity
$139.3K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key source of truth is the Chatbot Arena leaderboard at the specified math page, checked at June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Readers should verify the exact company name attached to the model in first place, because the market resolves to the company that owns the top-ranked model rather than the model name itself. The main ambiguity risk is timing: if the leaderboard is unavailable at the scheduled check, the market stays open until it returns, and the final result is based on the first valid check after that.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Meituan have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $3.4K in 24h volume, and $4.4K in liquidity.
Track live technology prediction markets focused on AI, major tech events, product launches, innovation forecasts, and emerging industry trends.
Yes
0.1%
No
100%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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