finance
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
6%
-3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?
24h Vol
$169K
Liquidity
$147.7K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketTechnology
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Meituan have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $719.8 in 24h volume, and $7.2K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$719.8
Liquidity
$7.2K
This market is about whether Meituan will be the company behind the model ranked second on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard at the end of June 2026. It is less about hype around a single release and more about where Meituan’s model stands relative to the rest of the field on a specific public benchmark at a fixed check time.
The question is whether Meituan owns the model that finishes in second place on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard, using the “Rank” column on the “Text Arena | Overall” tab with style control turned off. The market resolves from the leaderboard snapshot checked on June 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, and it is specifically asking about the company name attached to the model in that second-place slot. If two models are tied, the rules say the tie is broken first by Arena score, including unrounded values, and then by company name order if needed.
Meituan is best known as a major Chinese technology and local services company, so this market is testing whether it can compete at the very top of a crowded AI model leaderboard against better-known frontier labs and large platform companies. The uncertainty comes from the fact that leaderboard positions can shift as new models are added, rankings are updated, and ties are broken by fine differences in score. Readers who follow AI model performance may care because the result is a concrete, public comparison of who is near the top at a specific moment, not a vague claim about progress.
The price can move if Meituan announces, launches, or is credited with a model that climbs the Chatbot Arena rankings before the June 30 check. It can also move if competing companies release stronger models that push Meituan out of second place, or if the leaderboard changes enough that a tie is broken in Meituan’s favor or against it. Because this market depends on a public ranking snapshot, even small leaderboard updates, score adjustments, or reordering among closely matched models could matter.
Related markets
-3%
24h Vol
$169K
Liquidity
$147.7K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
The key thing to watch is the exact Chatbot Arena leaderboard page the rules specify: the “Text Arena | Overall” tab with style control off, checked at 12:00 PM ET on June 30, 2026. The source of truth is the company name attached to the model in second place at that snapshot, with ties handled by the stated score and alphabetical rules. Readers should also verify whether the leaderboard is online at check time, since the market rules say the market stays open if the source is temporarily unavailable; the fallback language is incomplete in the market text, so the exact alternate source should be confirmed from the full contract if needed.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Meituan have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $719.8 in 24h volume, and $7.2K in liquidity.
Track live technology prediction markets focused on AI, major tech events, product launches, innovation forecasts, and emerging industry trends.
Yes
0.3%
No
99.7%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
No 24h movement is available yet.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
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