finance
⚡ Tight💧 Liquid
6%
-4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?
24h Vol
$186K
Liquidity
$150.4K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketTechnology
Polymarket market
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Meituan have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $1K in 24h volume, and $4.7K in liquidity.
Probability
0%
24h Volume
$1K
Liquidity
$4.7K
This market asks whether Meituan will be the company behind the model ranked third on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at the June 30, 2026 check. Meituan is better known for food delivery and local services than for frontier AI, so the page is really tracking whether one of its models can stay near the top tier of the public leaderboard.
The question is not simply whether Meituan has an AI model, but whether the company owns the model that sits in third place on the Chatbot Arena "Text Arena | Overall" leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on June 30, 2026. The market uses the rank shown in the leaderboard’s "Rank" column, with style control turned off, and it applies the source’s own tie-breaking rules if two models are level on rank or score. In plain terms, the result depends on the leaderboard snapshot at the deadline and on which company is credited with the model in that exact ordering.
This market captures uncertainty about how far Meituan’s AI efforts can climb relative to much larger and more established AI companies. Because the outcome depends on a public benchmark table rather than a single product launch or a company announcement, small shifts in model quality, leaderboard methodology, or tie breaks can change the result. Readers may care because it is a concrete way to compare Meituan with global AI leaders on a widely watched public ranking.
The market price can move if Meituan announces a new model, a major upgrade, or a deployment that appears to improve its standing on Chatbot Arena. It can also move if competing companies release stronger models that push Meituan down the table, or if the leaderboard’s ordering changes because of tie-breaks in rank or Arena score. Since the resolution is tied to a specific public snapshot, any change that affects the leaderboard position near the end of June 2026 is especially important.
Related markets
-4%
24h Vol
$186K
Liquidity
$150.4K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View marketThe current market price implies roughly a 0% chance for the leading outcome, based on live Polymarket pricing. That number is not a prediction from PredictionNinja and it is not a guarantee; it is the current crowd-priced view of the market and can change quickly when new information appears.
Before the deadline, the key thing to verify is the exact leaderboard snapshot on lmarena.ai at June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET, using the "Leaderboard" tab and the "Text Arena | Overall" view with style control off. The market resolves by the company that owns the model in third place after the leaderboard’s own ranking and tie-breaking rules are applied, so readers should pay attention to both the displayed rank and any underlying score detail if there is a tie. If the site is temporarily unavailable at check time, the market stays open until the leaderboard returns, so the final resolution depends on the first valid check after availability resumes.
Track live probability, outcome prices, volume, liquidity, and resolution details for Will Meituan have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?. The market currently shows a live probability of 0%, $1K in 24h volume, and $4.7K in liquidity.
Track live technology prediction markets focused on AI, major tech events, product launches, innovation forecasts, and emerging industry trends.
Yes
0.3%
No
99.8%
This market is currently listed with an end date of Jun 30, 2026. Market timelines can change if the underlying event is postponed, rescheduled, or resolved early.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Probability signal
The current price implies a lower-probability outcome, which can make the market more sensitive to surprise news.
Liquidity context
Liquidity is present but not especially deep, so spreads and order-book movement still matter.
Spread
The bid-ask spread is tight, which usually points to a more actively priced market.
Recent movement
The 24h move is modest, suggesting the market has not repriced dramatically in the latest feed.
The current displayed probability is 0%, based on the latest normalized Polymarket data available to PredictionNinja.
The rules and resolution criteria are pulled from the market description provided by Polymarket when available.
Prediction markets can move whenever traders react to new information, liquidity changes, injuries, announcements, news, or other event-specific developments.
No. PredictionNinja displays market data and context for research only. It is not financial, legal, betting, or investment advice.
--
24h Vol
$530.7K
Liquidity
$251.1K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View market
-0.1%
24h Vol
$26.5K
Liquidity
$311.5K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View market+0.2%
24h Vol
$21.2K
Liquidity
$29.8K
Spread
1%
Live
View market
0%
24h Vol
$16.7K
Liquidity
$39.7K
Spread
0%
6/30/2026
View market-9%
24h Vol
$15.5K
Liquidity
$18.8K
Spread
1%
12/31/2027
View market